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Thursday, February 28, 2013

Friday: Personal Income and Outlays, ISM Mfg Index, Construction Spending, Auto Sales, Consumer sentiment

by Calculated Risk on 2/28/2013 07:53:00 PM

There are several key economic releases on Friday. First, the Personal Income and Outlays report for January will be released. This will give some idea of how consumer spending is holding up following the payroll tax increase at the beginning of the year. Note that Personal Income will be off sharply in January since some people took income in December to avoid higher taxes in 2013. Don't be shocked by a large one month decline in income!

Another key release is light vehicles sales for February. The automakers will release results all day, and I'll post an estimate of the seasonally adjusted annual sales rate around 4 PM ET. Strong auto sales in February, combined with the ongoing housing recovery, would be a positive sign for the economy going forward.

As always, the ISM manufacturing index could move the markets. The regional surveys have been mixed, although the Markit Flash PMI was fairly strong, and the Chicago PMI increased in February.

Friday economic releases:
• At 8:30 AM ET, Personal Income and Outlays for January. The consensus is for a 2.1% decrease in personal income in January, and for 0.2% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

• At 9:55 AM, Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for February). The consensus is for a reading of 76.0.

• At 10:00 AM, ISM Manufacturing Index for February. The consensus is for PMI to decline to 52.8%. (above 50 is expansion).

• Also at 10:00 AM, Construction Spending for January. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

• All day: Light vehicle sales for February. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to be at 15.2 million SAAR in February (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) down from 15.3 SAAR in January.