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Sunday, June 03, 2012

Europe: A few Key Dates this Month

by Calculated Risk on 6/03/2012 12:46:00 PM

Just a few dates ... the last two weeks will be very busy.

• Wednesday, June 6th: ECB Governing Council meeting. Here are a few comments from analysts at Nomura:

We expect the ECB to keep its policy rate unchanged at 1%, keeping the powder dry until there is more clarity on Greece's euro-area membership. ... We think the tone of the press conference and the statement will be significantly more dovish than last month given that the ECB's assumption of a mid-summer recovery is currently at risk. We also expect the June quarterly forecast update to show downward revisions to both the inflation and the output outlook. In our view, such a dovish signal would firm expectations that the ECB will cut rates as soon as at the July meeting. ... At the moment, we see a 30% probability of a 25bp rate cut next week.
• Thursday, June 7th: BoE rate decision. From the Telegraph: Bank of England to consider £50bn stimulus for economy
Worsening economic prospects could force the hand of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee, which last month voted to pause its purchase of government bonds after pumping £325bn into the market through quantitative easing. ... The International Monetary Fund has recommended that the MPC consider a further reduction in interest rates, which have been at an all-time low of 0.5pc since March 2009, to help the UK weather the eurozone debt crisis.
• Monday, June 11th: IMF Report on Spanish Banks

Sunday, June 17th: Greek Election.

Monday, June 18th: Independent Spanish Bank Stress Tests. This is the preliminary results of the tests by Oliver Wyman Ltd. and Roland Berger Strategy Consultants. From Reuters: "Big Four" to audit Spain's banking sector
Spain has picked the "Big Four" accounting firms KPMG KPMG.UL, PwC PWC.UL, Deloitte DLTE.UL and Ernst & Young ERNY.UL to carry a full, individual audit of its ailing banks, a source with knowledge of the decision told Reuters on Saturday.

The review, which should take a few months, will complement an ongoing exercise to stress test Spain's banking sector by consultors Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger, whose first results are expected around mid-June.
Monday, June 18th: Start of two day G20 summit meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico

Thursday, June 21st: Meeting of euro zone finance ministers

Thursday, June 28th: Start of two day European summit in Brussels

Saturday, June 30th: Greece required to enact new austerity measures as part of the bailout agreement. Greece is currently funded until the end of June.

Yesterday:
Summary for Week Ending June 1st
Schedule for Week of June 3rd
Employment posts:
May Employment Report: 69,000 Jobs, 8.2% Unemployment Rate
May Employment Summary and Discussion
Employment Report Graphs: Construction, Duration of Unemployment and Diffusion Indexes
Employment Graphs