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Sunday, April 22, 2012

From the WSJ: Hilsenrath's FOMC Preview

by Calculated Risk on 4/22/2012 07:58:00 PM

This is very similar to my FOMC Meeting Preview this morning.

From Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: A Forecast of What the Fed Will Do: Stand Pat

The changing forecast will be one of the most important topics of discussion at the central bank's policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday, when officials will update their quarterly economic projections.
The new forecasts could project a little more inflation in 2012 than the Fed forecast in January, thanks in part to a recent rise in gasoline prices. It could also project a little less unemployment for 2012, thanks to recent declines in the jobless rate.
But the overall growth outlook for 2012 doesn't seem to have changed much from a few months ago.
Against the backdrop of a little more inflation and a little less unemployment than expected in the short-run, a scattering of officials might say that short-term interest rates should go up sooner than they projected in January to forestall a run-up in consumer prices.
But with many officials still doubtful about the durability of the recovery and expecting inflation to recede, the broader view at the Fed seems likely to favor sticking to their plan to keep rates low until late 2014.
Also on "QE", Paul Krugman has two short comments: What We Talk About When We Talk About QE and QE Or Not QE, That Is The Question. I frequently point out in the comments that the Fed is buying agency MBS, not private label garbage. Apparently there is widespread misunderstanding on this point. Krugman writes:
Reading a few comments, I think it’s really important to emphasize that the Fed is only buying agency mortgage-backed securities — that is, the stuff that already has an implicit Federal guarantee. A lot of readers seem to think that the Fed is buying subprime MBS or something like that, handing over money for worthless paper. Not so.
Summary for Week Ending April 20th
Schedule for Week of April 22nd