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Thursday, November 17, 2011

Philly Fed: "Regional manufacturing is expanding, but at a slow pace"

by Calculated Risk on 11/17/2011 12:24:00 PM

Catching up (I'll have more on mortgage delinquencies later) ...

From the Philly Fed: November 2011 Business Outlook Survey

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, remained positive for the second consecutive month, but it decreased from 8.7 in October to 3.6. Indexes for current new orders and shipments showed a similar pattern, remaining positive but falling 7 points and 6 points, respectively.
The current employment index increased 11 points from its reading in October, attributable also to a decline in the share of firms reporting employment decreases. The average workweek index increased 8 points, to its highest level in seven months.
The broadest indicator of future activity increased nearly 15 points and is
now at its highest reading in eight months
. The indexes for future new orders
and shipments both improved, increasing 13 points and 10 points, respectively.
Paralleling the increase in other future indicators, the index for future employment rose 11 points.
This indicates expansion in November, but at a slower pace than in October and below the consensus forecast of +9.0.

The six month outlook improved "notably", and employment increased (number of employees was at 12.0, up from 1.4 last month, and the average workweek was at 11.0, up from 3.1).

ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index. The dashed green line is an average of the NY Fed (Empire State) and Philly Fed surveys through November. The ISM and total Fed surveys are through October.

The average of the Empire State and Philly Fed surveys increased again in November, and is has been slightly positive for two months.
All current manufacturing graphs

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims: Four Week average falls under 400,000
Housing Starts decline slightly in October
MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies decline slightly in Q3