Thursday, November 17, 2011

Housing Starts decline slightly in October

by Bill McBride on 11/17/2011 08:50:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 628,000. This is 0.3 percent (±10 9%)* below the revised September estimate of 630,000, but is 16.5 percent (±10.7%) above the October 2010 rate of 539,000.

Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 430,000; this is 3.9 percent (±7.5%)* above the revised September figure of 414,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 183,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 653,000. This is 10.9 percent (±1.6%) above the revised September rate of 589,000 and is 17.7 percent (±3.4%) above the October 2010 estimate of 555,000.

Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 434,000; this is 5.1 percent (±1.6%) above the revised September figure of 413,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 202,000 in October.
Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts Click on graph for larger image.

Total housing starts were at 628 thousand (SAAR) in October, down 0.3% from the revised Septmeber rate of 630 thousand (SAAR). Most of the increase this year has been for multi-family starts.

Single-family starts increased 3.9% to 430 thousand in October.

The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.

Total Housing Starts and Single Family Housing Starts This shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and that housing starts have been mostly moving sideways for about two years and a half years - with slight ups and downs due to the home buyer tax credit.

Multi-family starts are increasing in 2011 - although from a very low level. This was well above expectations of 605 thousand starts in October.

Single family starts are still "moving sideways".