by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2011 09:55:00 AM
Friday, October 14, 2011
The preliminary October Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined to 57.5 from 59.4 in September.
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. In August, sentiment was probably negatively impacted by the debt ceiling debate. History suggests it usually takes 2 to 4 months to bounce back from an event (If we can call the threat of default an "event"). So sentiment might increase over the next couple of months.
And, of course, any bounce back from the debt ceiling debate would be to an already weak reading.
This was very weak, and below the consensus forecast of 60.0.