by Calculated Risk on 10/14/2011 08:30:00 AM
Friday, October 14, 2011
Retail Sales increased 1.1% in September
On a monthly basis, retail sales were up 1.1% from August to September (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 7.9% from September 2010. From the Census Bureau report:
The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for September, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $395.5 billion, an increase of 1.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month and 7.9 percent (±0.7%) above September 2010. Total sales for the July through September 2011 period were up 8.0 percent (±0.7%) from the same period a year ago. The July to August 2011 percent change was revised from virtually unchanged (±0.5%)* to +0.3 percent (±0.2%).Retail sales excluding autos increased 0.6% in September. Sales for August were revised up to a 0.3% increase.
![Retail Sales](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjoZs5R-t_MMcsOpJsX5D7FK2NcQPQeyO69QPWjvG8vCG8oErycxn0ksthBy_q8haul4eR36-DuMOIMUG9sxK0dvbADlMWBmKzGc-sWN6724HoM4FgpPmuc8_0xVpZ0lggzqZfL/s320/RetailSalesSept2011.jpg)
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).
Retail sales are up 18.9% from the bottom, and now 4.5% above the pre-recession peak.
The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.
![Year-over-year change in Retail Sales](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi3AXvgfR_Exs1lU7RbFdj_2DJOrfDUfaFI19clyrLULInPpC9M_mnHLasabRKG5WNNNmnkDo6hZLFi1Iwyiz27kgqu41icWHrRu5-1ezu8ouWtGCbklqxit9qkBIsvD3aFJzam/s320/RetailYoYSept2011.jpg)
The consensus was for retail sales to increase 0.8% in September, and for a 0.4% increase ex-auto.
This was a strong report, especially with the upward revisions to both July and August.