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Friday, July 29, 2011

Real GDP still below Pre-Recession Peak, Chicago PMI declines, Consumer Sentiment Weak

by Calculated Risk on 7/29/2011 09:55:00 AM

• From the Chicago Business Barometer™: The overall index decreased to 58.8 in July from 61.1 in June. This was below consensus expectations of 60.2. Note: any number above 50 shows expansion.

The employment index decreased to 51.5 from 58.7.

• GDP: Not only has growth slowed, but the recession was significantly worse than earlier estimates suggested. Real GDP is still not back to the pre-recession peak.

The following graph shows the current estimate of real GDP and the pre-revision estimate (blue). I'll have more later on GDP.

Real GDP

Consumer Sentiment• The final July Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index declined slightly to 63.7 from the preliminary reading of 63.8 - and down sharply from 71.5 in June.

Click on graph for larger image in graphic gallery.

In general consumer sentiment is a coincident indicator and is usually impacted by employment (and the unemployment rate) and gasoline prices. However, even with lower gasoline prices, consumer sentiment declined sharply - possible because of the heavy coverage of the debt ceiling charade.

Earlier ...
Advance Estimate: Real Annualized GDP Grew at 1.3% in Q2