Friday, July 29, 2011

Advance Estimate: Real Annualized GDP Grew at 1.3% in Q2

by Bill McBride on 7/29/2011 08:30:00 AM

Note: This release contains a number of revisions. The recession was significantly worse than in earlier estimates. Last quarter (Q1) was revised down to just 0.4% real GDP growth.

From the BEA:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.
The following graph shows the quarterly GDP growth (at an annual rate) for the last 30 years. The dashed line is the current growth rate. Growth in Q2 at 1.3% annualized was below trend growth (around 3.1%) - and very weak for a recovery, especially with all the slack in the system.

GDP Growth Rate Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

A few key numbers:
• Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the first.

• Investment: "Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 8.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.3 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.7 percent, compared with an increase of 8.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 3.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.4 percent."

• Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 9.4 percent in the first.

I'll have much more ...

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