Thursday, March 20, 2008

ECRI: U.S. "unambiguously" in a recession

by Calculated Risk on 3/20/2008 12:43:00 PM

ECRI has finally called the recession.

From Reuters: Leading index shows US economy in recession, ECRI says

The United States is "unambiguously" in a recession ... citing a nine-month decline in its weekly measure of the economy.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, which correctly predicted the 2001 recession at a time when many on Wall Street still maintained a rosy outlook, said their numbers indicate the economic contraction is already under way.

Extending its weakening trend, the firm's Weekly Leading Index fell to 130.8 in the week of March 14 from 132.1 in the prior week, revised down from 132.2.

"It is exhibiting a pronounced, pervasive and persistent decline that is unambiguously recessionary," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
ECRI may have called the 2001 recession, but they are late to the party on this one.