Saturday, November 28, 2015

Schedule for Week of November 29th

by Bill McBride on 11/28/2015 09:09:00 AM

The key report this week is the November employment report on Friday.

Other key indicators include November vehicle sales, the November ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, and the October trade deficit.

Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will speak on the Economic Outlook.

----- Monday, November 30th -----

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for November. The consensus is for a reading of 54.0, down from 56.2 in October.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for October. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for November.

----- Tuesday, December 1st -----

ISM PMI10:00 AM: ISM Manufacturing Index for November. The consensus is for the ISM to be at 50.5, up from 50.1 in October.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index.

The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion at 50.1% in October. The employment index was at 47.6%, and the new orders index was at 52.9%.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for October. The consensus is for a 0.6% increase in construction spending.

Vehicle SalesAll day: Light vehicle sales for November. The consensus is for light vehicle sales to decrease to 18.0 million SAAR in November from 18.1 million in October (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the October sales rate.

----- Wednesday, December 2nd -----

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for November. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 183,000 payroll jobs added in November, up from 182,000 in October.

12:25 PM: Speech by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Economic Outlook, At the Economic Club of Washington, Washington, D.C.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, December 3rd -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 270 thousand initial claims, up from 260 thousand the previous week.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for October. The consensus is a 1.4% increase in orders.

10:00 AM: the ISM non-Manufacturing Index for October. The consensus is for index to decrease to 58.2 from 59.1 in October.

10:00 AM: Testimony by Fed Chair Janet Yellen, Economic Outlook, Before the Joint Economic Committee, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.

1:10 PM: Speech by Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer, Financial Stability and Shadow Banks, At the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland Financial Stability Conference, Washington, D.C.

----- Friday, December 4th -----

8:30 AM: Employment Report for November. The consensus is for an increase of 190,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November, down from the 271,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in October.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 5.0%.

Year-over-year change employmentThis graph shows the year-over-year change in total non-farm employment since 1968.

In October, the year-over-year change was 2.81 million jobs.

A key will be the change in real wages - and as the unemployment rate falls, wage growth should pickup.

U.S. Trade Deficit8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum, through October. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to be at $40.6 billion in October from $40.8 billion in September.