by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2019 12:26:00 PM

From the MBA: MBA 2020 Forecast: Purchase Originations to Increase 1.6 Percent to $1.29 Trillion

MBA forecasts total mortgage originations will come in around $2.06 trillion this year - the best since 2007 ($2.31 trillion) - before likely decreasing to around $1.89 trillion in 2020. In 2021, MBA expects purchase originations to total around $1.33 trillion, and refinance originations to reach $432 billion ($1.74 trillion total).

Mike Fratantoni, MBA's Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Research and Industry Technology, says geopolitical uncertainty and a slowdown in the global economy combined to be the driving force behind this year's increased financial market volatility and drop in interest rates. He expects these headwinds to continue, which will lead to slower economic growth in the United States next year.

"Interest rates will, on average, remain lower for longer given the somewhat cloudy economic outlook. These lower rates will in turn support both purchase and refinance origination volume in 2020," said Fratantoni. "Lower-than-expected mortgage rates gave the refinance market a significant boost this year, resulting in it being the strongest year of volume since 2016. Given the capacity constraints in the industry, some of this refinance activity will spill into the first half of next year."

After multiple years of home-price growth above wage gains, several markets in 2019 saw a slight slowdown in price appreciation. Fratantoni expects to see further deceleration in the next few years, as additional housing supply comes on the market.

"Moderating price growth is healthy, as it allows household incomes to catch up with home values. This improvement in affordability will lead to more home sales - especially given the rise in household formation and growing demand from first-time homebuyers," said Fratantoni.

Here are Fratantoni's economic forecast. Note that he is expecting GDP to slow to 0.9% next year (2020), and to be especially sluggish in the first half of next year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/07/2019 08:41:00 AM

The DOL reported:

In the week ending November 2, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 211,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 218,000 to 219,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,250, an increase of 250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,750 to 215,000.
emphasis added

The previous week was revised up.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971.

Click on graph for larger image.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 215,250.

This was lower than the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2019 07:49:00 PM

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 215,000 initial claims, down from 218,000 last week.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2019 02:33:00 PM

Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is just a beginning (I'll gather many more).

The table below shows a few forecasts for 2020:

From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: October 2019

From Freddie Mac: Freddie Mac October Forecast: Housing Market Remains Strong While Economic Slowdown Looms

From NAHB: Economic and Housing Forecasts

Note: For comparison, new home sales in 2019 will probably be around 633 thousand, and total housing starts around 1.243 million.

Housing Forecasts for 2020
	New Home Sales (000s)	Single Family Starts (000s)	Total Starts (000s)	House Prices1
Fannie Mae	669	903	1,267	1.5%2
Freddie Mac				2.8%3
NAHB	629	902	1,286
1Case-Shiller unless indicated otherwise 2Median House Prices 3FHFA Purchase-Only Index 4NAR Median Prices

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2019 09:31:00 AM

This is a key former distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities.

The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices stall to start fall, though still higher than last year; GLVAR housing statistics for October 2019

The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during October was 3,571. Compared to one year ago, October sales were up 7.9% for homes and up 3.5% for condos and townhomes.

As for inventory, by the end of October, GLVAR reported 7,210 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 4.2% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,808 properties listed without offers in October represented a 15.7% increase from one year ago.

While the local housing supply has increased over the past year, Carpenter said it’s still well below the six-month supply that is considered to be a more balanced market. At the current sales pace, she said Southern Nevada has less than a three-month supply of homes available for sale.
...
[T]he number of so-called distressed sales remains near historically low levels. GLVAR reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 2.4% of all existing local property sales in October. That compares to 3.0% of all sales one year ago and 5.2% two years ago.
emphasis added

1) Overall sales were up 7.1% year-over-year to 3,571 in October 2019 from 3,335 in October 2018.

2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is up from a year ago, from a total of 8,481 in October 2018 to 9,018 in October 2019. Note: Total inventory was up 6.3% year-over-year. This year-over-year increase is down substantially from earlier this year.  And months of inventory is still low.

3) Low level of distressed sales.

by Calculated Risk on 11/06/2019 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.1 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 1, 2019.

... The Refinance Index increased 2 percent from the previous week and was 144 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 3 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 4 percent compared with the previous week and was 7 percent higher than the same week one year ago.
...
“U.S. Treasury yields once again exhibited some intraweek volatility before declining sharply toward the end of the week. As a result, mortgage rates decreased, with the 30-year fixed rate falling below 4 percent again,” said Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “In response to the lower rates, refinance applications climbed 2 percent, as homeowners with larger loan balances helped to keep the average refinance loan size elevated. Purchase applications fell slightly last week but remained almost 7 percent higher than a year ago.”

Added Kan, “Amidst persistent supply constraints in the entry-level price range, there’s evidence that high-end homebuyers are more active this fall. The average loan size for purchase applications increased to its highest level since May.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($484,350 or less) decreased to 3.98 percent from 4.05 percent, with points remaining unchanged at 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

With lower rates, we saw a sharp increase in refinance activity - but declined a little recently with higher rates.   Mortgage rates would have to decline further to see a huge refinance boom.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 7% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2019 11:27:00 AM

The October ISM Non-manufacturing index was at 54.7%, up from 52.6% in September. The employment index increased to 53.7%, from 50.4%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

From the Institute for Supply Management: October 2019 Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business®

Economic activity in the non-manufacturing sector grew in October for the 117th consecutive month, say the nation’s purchasing and supply executives in the latest Non-Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The NMI® registered 54.7 percent, which is 2.1 percentage points above the September reading of 52.6 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index increased to 57 percent, 1.8 percentage points higher than the September reading of 55.2 percent, reflecting growth for the 123rd consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 55.6 percent; 1.9 percentage points higher than the reading of 53.7 percent in September. The Employment Index increased 3.3 percentage points in October to 53.7 percent from the September reading of 50.4 percent. The Prices Index decreased 3.4 percentage points from the September reading of 60 percent to 56.6 percent, indicating that prices increased in October for the 29th consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 13 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector had an uptick in growth after reflecting a pullback in September. The respondents continue to be concerned about tariffs, labor resources and the geopolitical climate.”
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

This suggests faster expansion in October than in September.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2019 10:21:00 AM

Notes: In September there were 7.024 million job openings, and, according to the September Employment report, there were 5.769 million unemployed. So, for the nineteenth consecutive month, there were more job openings than people unemployed. Also note that the number of job openings has exceeded the number of hires since January 2015 (almost 5 years).

From the BLS: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary

The number of job openings edged down to 7.0 million (-277,000) on the last business day of September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, hires and separations were little changed at 5.9 million and 5.8 million, respectively. Within separations, the quits rate and the layoffs and discharges rate were little changed at 2.3 percent and 1.3 percent, respectively. ...

The number of quits was little changed in September at 3.5 million as was the rate at 2.3 percent. The quits level was little changed for total private and for government.
emphasis added

The following graph shows job openings (yellow line), hires (dark blue), Layoff, Discharges and other (red column), and Quits (light blue column) from the JOLTS.

This series started in December 2000.

Note: The difference between JOLTS hires and separations is similar to the CES (payroll survey) net jobs headline numbers. This report is for September, the most recent employment report was for October.

Click on graph for larger image.


Note that hires (dark blue) and total separations (red and light blue columns stacked) are pretty close each month. This is a measure of labor market turnover.  When the blue line is above the two stacked columns, the economy is adding net jobs - when it is below the columns, the economy is losing jobs.

Jobs openings decreased in September to 7.024 million from 7.301 million in August.

The number of job openings (yellow) are down 5% year-over-year.

Quits are up 3% year-over-year. These are voluntary separations. (see light blue columns at bottom of graph for trend for "quits").

Job openings remain at a high level, and quits are still increasing year-over-year. This was a solid report.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2019 08:57:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for September. The recent Case-Shiller index release was for August. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Reports September Home Prices Increased by 3.5% Year Over Year

CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for September 2019, which shows home prices rose both year over year and month over month. Home prices increased nationally by 3.5% from September 2018. On a month-over-month basis, prices increased by 0.4% in September 2019.

Home prices continue to increase on an annual basis with the CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating annual price growth will increase 5.6% by September 2020. On a month-over-month basis, the forecast calls for home prices to increase by 0.3% from September 2019 to October 2019. The CoreLogic HPI Forecast is a projection of home prices calculated using the CoreLogic HPI and other economic variables. Values are derived from state-level forecasts by weighting indices according to the number of owner-occupied households for each state.

“Mortgage rates were a full percentage point lower this September compared to a year ago, boosting affordability for first-time buyers and supporting a rise in homeownership,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “In addition to lower interest rates, personal income grew faster than home prices during the past year. This provided an additional lift for first-time buyer affordability and helped to boost the homeownership rate to the highest level in more than five years.”
emphasis added

This graph is from CoreLogic and shows the YoY change in their index.

CR Note: The YoY change in the CoreLogic index decreased over the last year, but is now moving sideways.

by Calculated Risk on 11/05/2019 08:48:00 AM

From the Department of Commerce reported:

The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $52.5 billion in September, down $2.6 billion from $55.0 billion in August, revised.

September exports were $206.0 billion, $1.8 billion less than August exports. September imports were $258.4 billion, $4.4 billion less than August imports.

Click on graph for larger image.

Both exports and imports decreased in September.

Exports are 25% above the pre-recession peak and down 2% to September 2018; imports are 11% above the pre-recession peak, and down 3% compared to September 2018.

In general, trade both imports and exports have moved more sideways or down recently.

The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum.

The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products.

Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in September.

Oil imports averaged $53.12 per barrel in September, down from $54.13 in August, and down from $61.40 in September 2018.

The trade deficit with China decreased to $31.6 billion in September, from $40.3 billion in September 2018.