by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 07:27:00 PM

Container traffic gives us an idea about the volume of goods being exported and imported - and usually some hints about the trade report since LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic was up 1.5% compared in October to the rolling 12 months ending in September.   Outbound traffic was up 0.7% compared to the rolling 12 months ending in September.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

Usually imports peak in the July to October period as retailers import goods for the Christmas holiday, and then decline sharply and bottom in February or March depending on the timing of the Chinese New Year.

In general imports have been increasing, and exports have mostly moved sideways over the last 6 or 7 years.

by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 04:19:00 PM

From the HAR: There's Nothing Spooky About October Houston Home Sales

After a down month in September, directly influenced by the surge in post-Hurricane Harvey home sales exactly one year earlier, the Houston real estate market returned to more normalized conditions in October with gains in both sales volume and pricing.

According to the latest monthly report from the Houston Association of REALTORS® (HAR), 6,716 single-family homes sold in October compared to 6,417 a year earlier. That translates to a 4.7-percent increase. Year-to-date, home sales are 5.3 percent ahead of 2017’s record volume. Inventory grew slightly from a 3.7-months supply to 3.9 months.…
...
Sales of all property types totaled 8,127, up 6.0-percent over the same month last year.
...
Total active listings, or the total number of available properties, climbed 7.3 percent to 41,061. Single-family homes inventory remains tight, reaching a 3.9-months supply in October versus a 3.7-months supply a year earlier.
emphasis added

Another market with inventory up, but not a huge increase.

by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 03:11:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment.

From the AIA: Architecture firm billings continue to slow, but remain positive in October

Architecture firm billings growth softened in October but remained positive for the thirteenth consecutive month, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA).

AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for October was 50.4 compared to 51.1 in September. With continued strength in new project inquiries, billings are expected to remain steady into the coming months.

"The effects of the 2018 hurricane season are the probable cause of the temporary contraction in billings in the Southern region,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. “This decrease in demand for design services is limited, and the region should rebound over the next several months."
...
• Regional averages: Midwest (57.8), Northeast (51.8), South (48.4), West (46.9)

• Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (52.7), multi-family residential (52.3), institutional (52.0), commercial/industrial (48.9)
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 50.4 in October, down from 51.1 in October. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, suggesting a further increase in CRE investment into 2019.

by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 11:35:00 AM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI this morning:

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% (2.4% annualized rate) in October. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index also rose 0.2% (2.7% annualized rate) during the month. The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) monthly CPI report.

Earlier today, the BLS reported that the seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers rose 0.3% (4.0% annualized rate) in October. The CPI less food and energy rose 0.2% (2.3% annualized rate) on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Note: The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI details for October here. Motor fuel was up 43% annualized in October, but that will reverse in November.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 2.7%, the trimmed-mean CPI rose 2.2%, and the CPI less food and energy rose 2.3%. Core PCE is for September and increased 1.96% year-over-year.

On a monthly basis, median CPI was at 2.4% annualized, trimmed-mean CPI was at 2.7% annualized, and core CPI was at 2.3% annualized.

Using these measures, inflation softened slightly on a year-over-year basis in October. Overall, these measures are at or above the Fed's 2% target (Core PCE is slightly below 2%).

by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 08:36:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent in October on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.1 percent in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.5 percent before seasonal adjustment.

An increase in the gasoline index was responsible for over one-third of the seasonally adjusted increase in the all items index; advances in the indexes for shelter, used cars and trucks, and electricity also contributed. The increases in the gasoline and electricity indexes led to a 2.4-percent rise in the energy index. The food index, in contrast, declined slightly in October.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in October following a 0.1-percent increase in September. Along with the indexes for shelter and for used cars and trucks, the indexes for medical care, household furnishings and operations, motor vehicle insurance, and tobacco all increased in October. The indexes for communication, new vehicles, and recreation all declined.

The all items index rose 2.5 percent for the 12 months ending October, a larger increase than the 2.3-percent increase for the 12 months ending September. The index for all items less food and energy rose 2.1 percent for the 12 months ending October.
emphasis added

I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI. This was at the consensus forecast.

by Calculated Risk on 11/14/2018 07:56:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 3.2 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending November 9, 2018.

... The Refinance Index decreased 4.3 percent from the previous week reaching its lowest level since December 2000. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 2.3 percent from one week earlier reaching its lowest level since February 2017. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 3 percent lower than the same week one year ago. ...

“Recent volatility in the financial markets and increasing rates continue to adversely impact mortgage application activity, even as the general economic outlook remains positive,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s AVP of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Both home purchase and mortgage refinance applications decreased over the week, driven largely by declines in conventional applications. Mortgage rates increased over the week for most loan types, with the 30-year fixed rate mortgage increasing to 5.17 percent – the highest level since 2010.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($453,100 or less) increased to 5.17 percent from 5.15 percent, with points increasing to 0.55 from 0.51 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.


The first graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

Refinance activity will not pick up significantly unless mortgage rates fall 50 bps or more from the recent level.

The second graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index

According to the MBA, purchase activity is down 3% year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2018 06:42:00 PM

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Token Improvement For Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates improved by what could only be described as a token amount today. In other words, we're not talking about any major changes. In fact, mortgage rates themselves will be unchanged from Friday for almost any scenario. As is so often the case, we can only measure the change in terms of "effective rates" (which take upfront costs into consideration). [30YR FIXED - 5.0%]
emphasis added

Wednesday:
• At 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• At 8:30 AM, The Consumer Price Index for October from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.2% increase in core CPI.

• During the day, The AIA's Architecture Billings Index for October (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2018 04:30:00 PM

According to the BLS employment report, retailers hired seasonal workers in October at the lowest pace since the great recession.

Typically retail companies start hiring for the holiday season in October, and really increase hiring in November. Here is a graph that shows the historical net retail jobs added for October, November and December by year.

This graph really shows the collapse in retail hiring in 2008. Since then seasonal hiring has increased back close to more normal levels. Note: I expect the long term trend will be down with more and more internet holiday shopping.

Click on graph for larger image.

Retailers hired 123 thousand workers (NSA) net in October.   Note: this is NSA (Not Seasonally Adjusted).

This suggests retailers are a little cautious about the holiday season - or they are having difficulty finding seasonal help.

Last year there was a surge in seasonal hiring in November, and maybe that will happen again this year.

Note: There is a decent correlation between October seasonal retail hiring and holiday retail sales.

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2018 02:03:00 PM

A few brief excerpts from a Goldman Sachs research note:

Following the remarkable momentum in job growth, we update our estimate of the breakeven payroll pace that stabilizes the unemployment rate and estimate how long it will likely take before we get there.

We estimate the pace of breakeven payrolls at 90k per month, less than half the pace of realized job growth in recent months. ... Combined with our GDP forecasts, the analysis suggests that job creation will reach its breakeven pace in early/mid-2020, when the unemployment rate in our forecast is down to just 3%.

CR Note: Goldman also thinks the Fed will raise rates by 25bps five more times in this cycle (maybe more).

by Calculated Risk on 11/13/2018 11:29:00 AM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic Loan Performance Insights Find the Overall US Mortgage Delinquency Rate in August Fell to the Lowest Level in More Than 12 Years

The report shows that, nationally, 4 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure) in August 2018, representing a 0.6 percentage point decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with August 2017, when it was 4.6 percent.

As of August 2018, the foreclosure inventory rate – which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process – was 0.5 percent, down 0.1 percentage point since August 2017. The August 2018 foreclosure inventory rate tied with the April, May, June and July rates this year as the lowest for any month since September 2006, when it was also 0.5 percent.

Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency, as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next.

The rate for early-stage delinquencies – defined as 30 to 59 days past due – was 1.8 percent in August 2018, down from 2 percent in August 2017. The share of mortgages that were 60 to 89 days past due in August 2018 was 0.6 percent, down from 0.7 percent in August 2017. The serious delinquency rate – defined as 90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure – was 1.5 percent in August 2018, down from 1.9 percent in August 2017. This serious delinquency rate was the lowest for August since 2006 when it was 1.4 percent, and the lowest for any month since March 2007 when it was also 1.5 percent.

Since early-stage delinquencies can be volatile, CoreLogic also analyzes transition rates. The share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due was 0.8 percent in August 2018, down from 0.9 percent in August 2017. By comparison, in January 2007, just before the start of the financial crisis, the current-to-30-day transition rate was 1.2 percent, while it peaked in November 2008 at 2 percent.

CR Note: Mortgage delinquency rates - and foreclosure rates - are close to normal.