by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2015 01:04:00 PM

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, and November Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the January Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, January 26th -----
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for January.

----- Tuesday, January 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in durable goods orders.

9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the October 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the National Index for November, down from 4.7% in October. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.5% year-over-year in November, and for prices to increase 0.6% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 450 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December from 438 thousand in November.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2014

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January. The consensus is for the index to increase to 95.0 from 92.6.

----- Wednesday, January 28th -----
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Statement. The FOMC is expected to retain the word "patient" in the FOMC statement.

----- Thursday, January 29th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 300 thousand from 307 thousand.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

10:00 AM: Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).

----- Friday, January 30th -----
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2014 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q4.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 57.7, down from 58.8 in December.

9:55 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 98.2, unchanged from the preliminary reading of 98.2, and up from the December reading of 93.6.

by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2015 08:11:00 AM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Jan 23, 2015.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

For the second straight week, there is a bank failure that contributed to changes to the Unofficial Problem Bank List. In all, there were two removals that lowered the list count to 390 institutions with assets of $122.5 billion. A year ago, the list held 600 institutions with $197.9 billion in assets.

Valley National Bank, Espanola, NM ($174 million), which has been on the list since its first publication in 2009, found a merger partner in order to escape the list. Highland Community Bank, Chicago, IL ($58 million) was closed today by the FDIC. It was the 62nd bank headquartered in Illinois to fail since the on-set of the Great Recession in 2008.

Next week, we anticipate for the FDIC to release an update on its latest enforcement action activities.

CR Note: The first unofficial problem bank list was published in August 2009 with 389 institutions. The list peaked at 1,002 institutions on June 10, 2011, and is now back down to 390 - only one more than when we started.

by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2015 08:34:00 PM

Another failure in Illinois, from the FDIC: United Fidelity Bank, fsb, Evansville, Indiana, Assumes All of the Deposits of Highland Community Bank, Chicago, Illinois

As of December 31, 2014, Highland Community Bank had approximately $54.7 million in total assets and $53.5 million in total deposits. ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $5.8 million. ... Highland Community Bank is the second FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the first in Illinois. The last FDIC-insured institution closed in the state was The National Republic Bank of Chicago, Chicago, on October 24, 2014.

It feels like a Friday. Best to all!

by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2015 04:30:00 PM

The advance estimate for Q4 GDP will be released next Thursday. The consensus is for GDP to 3.0% annualized in Q4. Here are couple of forecasts:

From the Atlanta Fed GDPNow:

The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2014 was 3.5 percent on January 21, up from 3.4 percent on January 14. The uptick was due to a slight increase in the nowcast for fourth-quarter inventory investment after last Thursday's industrial production release from the Federal Reserve Board.

From Merrill Lynch:

We are forecasting a 3.2% increase in real GDP in 4Q. We expect particularly strong consumer spending of 3.7% even with the disappointing December retail sales report.

by Calculated Risk on 1/23/2015 11:56:00 AM

The most important number in the NAR report each month is inventory. This morning the NAR reported that inventory was down 0.5% year-over-year in December.   It is important to note that the NAR inventory data is "noisy" and difficult to forecast based on other data - and December is usually the lowest month of the year for inventory.

Clearly - in many areas - inventory is still too low.

The headline NAR inventory number is not seasonally adjusted, even though there is a clear seasonal pattern. Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko has sent me the seasonally adjusted inventory. NOTE: The NAR does provide a seasonally adjusted months-of-supply, although that is in the supplemental data.

Click on graph for larger image.

This shows that inventory bottomed in January 2013 (on a seasonally adjusted basis), and inventory is now up about 5.5% from the bottom. On a seasonally adjusted basis, inventory was down 2.2% in December compared to November (most of the decline reported by the NAR was seasonal).

Important: The NAR reports active listings, and although there is some variability across the country in what is considered active, many "contingent short sales" are not included. "Contingent short sales" are strange listings since the listings were frequently NEVER on the market (they were listed as contingent), and they hang around for a long time - they are probably more closely related to shadow inventory than active inventory. However when we compare inventory to 2005, we need to remember there were no "short sale contingent" listings in 2005. In the areas I track, the number of "short sale contingent" listings is also down sharply year-over-year.

And another key point: The NAR reported total sales were up 3.5% from December 2013, however normal equity sales were up even more, and distressed sales down sharply.  From the NAR (from a survey that is far from perfect):

Distressed sales – foreclosures and short sales – were up slightly in December (11 percent) from November (9 percent) but are down from 14 percent a year ago. Eight percent of December sales were foreclosures and 3 percent were short sales.

Last year in December the NAR reported that 14% of sales were distressed sales.

A rough estimate: Sales in December 2013 were reported at 4.87 million SAAR with 14% distressed.  That gives 682 thousand distressed (annual rate), and 4.19 million equity / non-distressed.  In December 2014, sales were 5.04 million SAAR, with 11% distressed.  That gives 554 thousand distressed - a decline of about 19% from December 2013 - and 4.49 million equity.  Although this survey isn't perfect, this suggests distressed sales were down sharply - and normal sales up around 7%.. 

The following graph shows existing home sales Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Click on graph for larger image.

Sales NSA in December (red column) were the highest since for December since 2006.

Earlier:
• Existing Home Sales in December: 5.04 million SAAR, Inventory down slightly Year-over-year