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Saturday, January 24, 2015

Schedule for Week of January 25, 2015

by Calculated Risk on 1/24/2015 01:04:00 PM

The key reports this week are the advance estimate of Q4 GDP, December New Home sales, and November Case-Shiller house prices.

For manufacturing, the January Dallas and Richmond Fed surveys will be released this week.

----- Monday, January 26th -----

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for January.

----- Tuesday, January 27th -----

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for December from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 0.7% increase in durable goods orders.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for November. Although this is the November report, it is really a 3 month average of September, October and November prices.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the October 2014 report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 4.6% year-over-year increase in the National Index for November, down from 4.7% in October. The Zillow forecast is for the National Index to increase 4.5% year-over-year in November, and for prices to increase 0.6% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for December from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the November sales rate.

The consensus is for an increase in sales to 450 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in December from 438 thousand in November.

10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for December 2014

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for January.

10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for January. The consensus is for the index to increase to 95.0 from 92.6.

----- Wednesday, January 28th -----

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Statement. The FOMC is expected to retain the word "patient" in the FOMC statement.

----- Thursday, January 29th -----

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 300 thousand from 307 thousand.

10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for December. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

10:00 AM: Q4 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau. This report is frequently mentioned by analysts and the media to report on the homeownership rate, and the homeowner and rental vacancy rates. However, this report doesn't track with other measures (like the decennial Census and the ACS).

----- Friday, January 30th -----

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter 2014 (advance estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 3.2% annualized in Q4.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for January. The consensus is for a reading of 57.7, down from 58.8 in December.

9:55 AM: University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for January). The consensus is for a reading of 98.2, unchanged from the preliminary reading of 98.2, and up from the December reading of 93.6.