Tuesday, December 30, 2014

Zillow: Case-Shiller House Price Index year-over-year change expected to slow further in November

by Bill McBride on 12/30/2014 09:02:00 PM

Wednesday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 286 thousand from 280 thousand.

• At 9:45 AM ET, Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for December. The consensus is for a reading of 59.0, down from 60.8 in November.

• At 10:00 AM ET, Pending Home Sales Index for November. The consensus is for a 0.5% increase in the index.

The Case-Shiller house price indexes for October were released earlier today. Zillow has started forecasting Case-Shiller a month early - now including the National Index - and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close.

From Zillow: Nov. 2014 Case-Shiller Forecast: Home Price Changes Slowing, But Still Growing

The October S&P/Case-Shiller (SPCS) data released this morning showed more slowing in the housing market, with annual growth in national home prices falling to 4.6 percent. Annual appreciation in home values has been below 5 percent for the past two months, and we anticipate this trend to continue into the future. The 10- and 20-City Indices also saw annual growth rates decline in October; the 10-City index rose 4.4 percent, while the 20-City Index rose 4.5 percent – down from rates of 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent, respectively, in September.

Our forecast for November SPCS indicates that the slowing in home price gains will continue into November. Zillow predicts the national SPCS to rise 4.5 percent on an annual basis.

The non-seasonally adjusted (NSA) 20-City index fell 0.1 percent from September to October, and we expect it to decrease 0.2 percent in November. We also expect a monthly decline in the 10-City Composite Index next month, falling 0.2 percent from October to November (NSA).

All forecasts are shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on the October SPCS data release and the November 2014 Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), released Dec. 19. Officially, the SPCS Composite Home Price Indices for November will not be released until Tuesday, Jan. 27.
So the Case-Shiller index will probably show a lower year-over-year gain in November than in October.

Zillow November 2014 Case-Shiller Forecast
  Case-Shiller
Composite 10
Case-Shiller
Composite 20
Case-Shiller
National
NSASANSASANSASA
YoY4.2%4.2%4.4%4.4%4.5%4.5%
MoM-0.2%0.5%-0.2%0.5%-0.2%0.6%