by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2014 10:00:00 AM

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 440 thousand.

January sales were revised down from 468 thousand to 455 thousand, and December sales were revised up from 427 thousand to 441 thousand (November was revised up slightly too).  

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

Sales of new single-family houses in February 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 3.3 percent below the revised January rate of 455,000 and is 1.1 percent below the February 2013 estimate of 445,000.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Even with the increase in sales over the last two years, new home sales are still near the bottom for previous recessions.

The second graph shows New Home Months of Supply.

The months of supply increased in February to 5.2 months from 5.0 months in January.

The all time record was 12.1 months of supply in January 2009.

This is now in the normal range (less than 6 months supply is normal).

"The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 189,000. This represents a supply of 5.2 months at the current sales rate."

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale is still low, but moving up. The combined total of completed and under construction is also very low.

The last graph shows sales NSA (monthly sales, not seasonally adjusted annual rate).

In February 2014 (red column), 35 thousand new homes were sold (NSA). Last year 36 thousand homes were also sold in February. The high for February was 109 thousand in 2005, and the low for February was 22 thousand in 2011.



This was at expectations of 440,000 sales in February.

I'll have more later today . 

by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2014 09:17:00 AM

Note: The S&P website crashed (again), and I'll post graphs and more later today.

From the WSJ: U.S. Home Prices Rise 13.2% in January

According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home price report, the home price index covering 10 major U.S. cities increased 13.5% in the year ended in January. The 20-city price index advanced 13.2% ...

... "From the bottom in 2012, prices are up 23% and the housing market is showing signs of moving forward with more normal price increases." [said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices.]
...
"Expectations and recent data point to continued home price gains for 2014. Although most analysts do not expect the same rapid increases we saw last year, the consensus is for moderating gains," the report said.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2014 08:59:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts and new home sales in 2014:

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.

NDD has Starts and Permits.  I have Starts and New Home sales.

Of course, with the terms of the bet, we could both "win" at some point during the year. (I expect to "win" in a few months, but not now due to the severe weather and limited starts and sales in many parts of the country).

In February 2013, new home sales were at a 445 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win, new home sales would have to be up 20% or at 534 thousand SAAR in February (not likely).

Tuesday:
• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January. The consensus is for a 13.3% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for January. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 13.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for January 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 440 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in February from 468 thousand in January.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March. The consensus is for the index to increase to 78.6 from 78.1.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2014 04:27:00 PM

Here is another weekly update on housing inventory ...

There is a clear seasonal pattern for inventory, with the low point for inventory in late December or early January, and then usually peaking in mid-to-late summer.

The Realtor (NAR) data is monthly and released with a lag (the most recent data was for February).  However Ben at Housing Tracker (Department of Numbers) has provided me some weekly inventory data for the last several years.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Housing Tracker reported weekly inventory for the 54 metro areas for 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

In 2011 and 2012, inventory only increased slightly early in the year and then declined significantly through the end of each year.

In 2013 (Blue), inventory increased for most of the year, and finished up about 2.7% YoY.

Inventory in 2014 (Red) is now 6.2% above the same week in 2013.

Inventory is still very low, but this increase in inventory should slow house price increases. 

Note: One of the key questions for 2014 will be: How much will inventory increase?  My guess is inventory will be up 10% to 15% year-over-year by the end of 2014 (inventory would still be below normal).

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2014 01:43:00 PM

Notes: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight (formerly LPS), Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). The timing of different house prices indexes can be a little confusing. Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted.

From LPS: U.S. Home Prices Flat for the Month; Up 8.0 Percent Year-Over-Year

Today, the Data and Analytics division of Black Knight Financial Services (formerly the LPS Data & Analytics division) released its latest Home Price Index (HPI) report, based on January 2014 residential real estate transactions. ... The Black Knight HPI represents the price of non-distressed sales by taking into account price discounts for REO and short sales.

The year-over-year increase was less in January (8.0%) than in December (8.4%), November (8.5%) and October (8.8%), so this suggests price increases might be slowing.

The LPS HPI is off 14.0% from the peak in June 2006.

Note: The press release has data for the 20 largest states, and 40 MSAs. Prices increased in 10 of the  20 largest states in January and were unchanged in two. LPS shows prices off 44.3% from the peak in Las Vegas, off 36.8% in Orlando, and 34.9% off from the peak in Riverside-San Bernardino, CA (Inland Empire). "After many months of hitting new peaks, Texas and its major metros backed off trend of consecutive new highs."

Note: Case-Shiller for January will be released tomorrow.