Monday, March 24, 2014

Tuesday: New Home Sales, Case-Shiller House Prices

by Bill McBride on 3/24/2014 08:59:00 PM

A reminder of a friendly bet I made with NDD on housing starts and new home sales in 2014:

If starts or sales are up at least 20% YoY in any month in 2014, [NDD] will make a $100 donation to the charity of Bill's choice, which he has designated as the Memorial Fund in honor of his late co-blogger, Tanta. If housing permits or starts are down 100,000 YoY at least once in 2014, he make a $100 donation to the charity of my choice, which is the Alzheimer's Association.
NDD has Starts and Permits.  I have Starts and New Home sales.

Of course, with the terms of the bet, we could both "win" at some point during the year. (I expect to "win" in a few months, but not now due to the severe weather and limited starts and sales in many parts of the country).

In February 2013, new home sales were at a 445 thousand seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). For me to win, new home sales would have to be up 20% or at 534 thousand SAAR in February (not likely).

• At 9:00 AM ET, S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for January. Although this is the January report, it is really a 3 month average of November, December and January. The consensus is for a 13.3% year-over-year increase in the Composite 20 index (NSA) for January. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 13.0% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.5% month-to-month seasonally adjusted.

• Also at 9:00 AM, FHFA House Price Index for January 2013. This was original a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase.

• At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for February from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a decrease in sales to 440 thousand Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) in February from 468 thousand in January.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Conference Board's consumer confidence index for March. The consensus is for the index to increase to 78.6 from 78.1.

• Also at 10:00 AM, the Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for March.