by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 08:26:00 PM

Retail sales were down 0.5% in June, and that led some forecasters to argue that the US economy was contracting. My view is the economy is still growing sluggishly. For July, expectations are for an increase in retail sales. Here are the economic releases scheduled for Tuesday:

• On Tuesday, at 7:30 AM ET, the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a decrease to 91.3 in July from 91.4 in June.

• At 8:30 AM, the Census Bureau will release Retail Sales for July. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in July, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.4%.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the Producer Price Index for July will be released. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).

• At 10:00 AM, the Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales report for June (Business inventories) will be released. The consensus is for 0.2% increase in inventories.

For the August economic prediction contest:

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 04:31:00 PM

I've been following the Sacramento market to look for changes in the mix of house sales in a distressed area over time (conventional, REOs, and short sales). The Sacramento Association of REALTORS® started breaking out REOs in May 2008, and short sales in June 2009.

So far there has been a shift from REO to short sales, and the percentage of distressed sales has been declining year-over-year. This data would suggest some improvement although there are still more distressed sales to come.

In July 2012, 54.4% of all resales (single family homes and condos) were distressed sales. This was up slightly from 54.2% last month, and down from 61.3% in July 2011. The percentage of REOs fell to 22.4%, the lowest since the Sacramento Realtors started tracking the data and the percentage of short sales increased to 32.0%, the highest percentage recorded.

Here are the statistics.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the percent of REO sales, short sales and conventional sales. There is a seasonal pattern for conventional sales (stronger in the spring and summer), and distressed sales happen all year - so the percentage of distressed sales decreases every summer and the increases in the fall and winter.

There has been an increase in conventional sales this year, and there were more short sales than REO sales in July for the fourth consecutive month. And the gap between short sales and REO sales is increasing.

Total sales were up 4.7% compared to June 2011, and conventional sales were up 23% year-over-year. Active Listing Inventory for single family homes declined 64.2% from last July and listings were down another 6.9% in July (from June).

Cash buyers accounted for 31.1% of all sales (frequently investors), and median prices were up 0.6% from last July.

This seems to be moving in the right direction, although the market is still in distress.

We are seeing a similar pattern in other distressed areas to more conventional sales, and a shift from REO to short sales,.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 01:24:00 PM

Last week the MBA released the results of their Q2 National Delinquency Survey. One of the key points was the difference in the number of mortgage in the foreclosure process between judicial and non-judicial foreclosure states.

The first graph below (repeat) is from the MBA and shows the percent of loans in the foreclosure process by state. Posted with permission.

The second graph shows all stages of delinquency (and in-foreclosure) by states, sorted by the percent seriously delinquent (90+ days plus in-foreclosure).

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The top states are Florida (13.70% in foreclosure down from 14.31% in Q1), New Jersey (7.65% down from 8.37%), Illinois (7.11% down from 7.46%), New York (6.47% up from 6.17%) and Nevada (the only non-judicial state in the top 13 at 6.09% down from 6.47%).

As Jay Brinkmann noted, California (3.07% down from 3.29%) and Arizona (3.24% down from 3.57%) are now a percentage point below the national average.

The second graph includes all delinquent loans (sorted by percent seriously delinquent).

Florida and New Jersey have the highest percentage of serious delinquent loans, followed by Nevada, New York, Illinois, Maine and Maryland. Nevada still leads with the highest percent of loans 90+ days delinquent.

Previous high delinquency states like California and Arizona are now well down the list.

Comment: It continues to bother me that several southern states always have an elevated percentage of mortgage loans 30+ day delinquent (Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, and Louisiana all have a large percentage light blue). Most of these borrowers always seem to catch up - they just make their payments late. That means lenders generate plenty of late fees in these states. This might be something for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to investigate.

by Calculated Risk on 8/13/2012 09:21:00 AM

On Sunday I put together a short list of key dates in Europe in September and October when European policymakers return from vacation.

Here are a couple more stories this morning ...

From Reuters: Italy Public Debt Hits Record High, Deficit Also up

Public debt at the end of June rose 6.6 billion euros to 1.973 billion euros, the Bank of Italy said ... The economy contracted 0.7 percent in the second quarter and gross domestic product was down 2.5 percent from a year earlier. ...
Italy's one-year borrowing costs rose marginally at auction on Monday, with uncertainty over how and when the European Central Bank might move to ease both the country's and the region's mounting debt problems tempering appetite for risk.

From the Athens News: GDP sinks 6.2% in second quarter

The country’s economy contracted 6.2 percent in the second quarter ... Currently in its fifth consecutive year, the economic downturn has driven unemployment to record highs, with nearly one in four unemployed and more pain expected ahead. ...
The jobless rate has already climbed to 23.1 percent, with nearly 55 percent of those aged 15-24 out of work.

Europe will be in the headlines again soon and policymakers will be busy in September and October.

by Calculated Risk on 8/12/2012 09:36:00 PM

This will be a busy week for economic data, but there are no releases scheduled for Monday.

The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with the Nikkei up slightly and the Shanghai Composite down slightly.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down slightly, and the DOW futures up slightly.

Oil prices are moving up again with WTI futures are at $93.30 and Brent is at $113.40 per barrel. Using the calculator at Econbrowser suggests national gasoline prices at about $3.67 per gallon.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 10th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 12th

Four more questions for the August economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).