by Bill McBride on 8/11/2012 01:05:00 PM
Saturday, August 11, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 10th
This will be a very busy week for economic data. There are two key housing reports to be released this week: August homebuilder confidence on Wednesday, and July housing starts on Thursday.
Another key report is retail sales for July. For manufacturing, the August NY Fed (Empire state) and Philly Fed surveys, and the July Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization report will be released this week.
On prices, PPI for July will be released on Tuesday, and CPI will be released on Wednesday.
No releases scheduled.
7:30 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for July. The consensus is for a decrease to 91.3 in July from 91.4 in June.
8:30 AM: Producer Price Index for July. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in producer prices (0.2% increase in core).
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales for July.
This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales are up 21.2% from the bottom, and now 6.0% above the pre-recession peak (not inflation adjusted)
The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in July, and for retail sales ex-autos to increase 0.4%.
10:00 AM: Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales for June (Business inventories). The consensus is for 0.2% increase in inventories.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index.
8:30 AM: Consumer Price Index for July. The consensus is for CPI to increase 0.2% in July and for core CPI to increase 0.2%.
8:30 AM: NY Fed Empire Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of 7.0, down from 7.4 in July (above zero is expansion).
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for July.
This shows industrial production since 1967.
The consensus is for Industrial Production to increase 0.5% in July, and for Capacity Utilization to increase to 79.2%.
10:00 AM: The August NAHB homebuilder survey. The consensus is for a reading of 35, unchanged from 35 in July. Although this index has been increasing lately, any number below 50 still indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
8:30 AM: Housing Starts for July.
Total housing starts were at 760 thousand (SAAR) in June, up 6.9% from the revised May rate of 711 thousand (SAAR).
The consensus is for total housing starts to decrease to 750,000 (SAAR) in July, down from 760,000 in June.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to increase to 365 thousand from 361 thousand.
10:00 AM: Philly Fed Survey for August. The consensus is for a reading of -5.0, up from -12.9 last month (above zero indicates expansion).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (preliminary for August). The consensus is for sentiment to decrease slightly to 72.0 from 72.3 in July.
10:00 AM: Conference Board Leading Indicators for August. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in this index.
10:00 AM: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for July 2012