by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2012 07:33:00 PM

It seems every time Europe has a summit, announces a new plan ... and then the details disappoint. As usual, the actual statement lacked details, but here are a couple of reviews:

From Charles Wyplosz: One more summit: The crisis rolls on

Reading the official documents from the June 28 summit requires linguistic and divination skills. The texts are convoluted and clearly aim at giving various positive impressions while shying away from deep commitments.

The clearest result is that EFSF/ESM funds can be used directly to support banks.

The summit attendees seem to have successfully drawn the conclusions that this was necessary from the disastrous impact of their mid-June decision on new lending Spanish authorities to shore up their banks.
...
At the end of the day, the summit was a little move in the right direction bank supervision, but keep watching; we still don’t know what will actually get put in place. There was nothing on collapsing Greece, nothing on unsustainable public debts in several countries, and no end in sight to recession in an increasing number of countries.

There was no knock-out winner in this summit, but on points I’d have to say that the winner is the crisis.

There is much more in Wyplosz' post.

Paul Krugman adds: What Did the EU Summit Accomplish?

The main substantive thing was the agreement in principle to set up something more or less like a European version of the TARP, in which funds for bank recapitalization will be supplied by a consortium rather than lent to governments already overburdened with debt. Good move, and Irish bond buyers are especially happy. But even this doesn’t take effect right away.

Also some bond purchases, but not by the ECB, so limited in size. So think of this as a very small version of quantitative easing.

So what we know even for the US is that the TARP and QE were perhaps enough to forestall disaster, but not to produce recovery — and Europe has the additional problem of huge needed realignments in competitiveness, which would be much easier if the ECB announced a dramatic loosening — which is didn’t.

Not nearly enough, then. Yet markets were buoyed.

I guess you can argue that this was sort of a downpayment — that it is the harbinger of bigger policy changes to come. I hope so.

A comment a few weeks ago from Mark Dow keeps ringing in my ear: "Germany is now pot committed."

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending June 29th
• Schedule for Week of July 1st

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2012 01:05:00 PM

Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending June 29th

The key report for this week will be the June employment report to be released on Friday, July 6th. Other key reports include the ISM manufacturing index on Monday, vehicle sales on Tuesday, and the ISM non-manufacturing (service) index on Thursday.

The European Central Bank (ECB) holds a meeting on Thursday and is expected to cut the benchmark interest rate from 1.0% to 0.75%.

Happy Independence Day on Wednesday!

Reis will release their Q2 Office, Mall and Apartment vacancy rate reports this week. Last quarter Reis reported falling vacancy rates for apartments, a decline in vacancy rates for regional malls, and a slight decline in the office vacancy rate.

----- Monday, July 2nd -----
10:00 AM ET: ISM Manufacturing Index for June.

Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. The consensus is for a decrease to 52.0 from 53.5 in May.

10:00 AM: Construction Spending for May. The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in construction spending.

----- Tuesday, July 3rd -----
Early: Reis Q2 2012 Office vacancy rates.

All day: Light vehicle sales for June. Light vehicle sales are expected to increase to 13.9 million from 13.8 million in May (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967. The dashed line is the May sales rate.

TrueCar is forecasting:

The June 2012 forecast translates into a Seasonally Adjusted Annualized Rate (SAAR) of 13.6 million new car sales, up from 11.5 million in June 2011 and down from 13.8 million in May 2012

Edmunds.com is forecasting:

[A]n estimated Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) this month of 13.9 million light vehicles, according to Edmunds.com.

10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for May. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in orders.

10:00 AM: Trulia Price & Rent Monitors for June. This is the new index from Trulia that uses asking prices adjusted both for the mix of homes listed for sale and for seasonal factors.

SIFMA recommends US markets close at 2:00 PM ET in advance of the Independence Day Holiday on July 4th.

----- Wednesday, July 4th -----
All US markets will be closed in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

----- Thursday, July 5th -----
Early: Reis Q2 2012 Apartment vacancy rates.

7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. Refinance activity has increased sharply, and it appears purchase activity is increasing a little too.

8:15 AM: The ADP Employment Report for June. This report is for private payrolls only (no government). The consensus is for 95,000 payroll jobs added in June, down from the 133,000 reported last month.

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to be unchanged at 386 thousand.

10:00 AM: ISM non-Manufacturing Index for June. The consensus is for a decrease to 53.0 from 53.7 in May. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction.

This graph shows the ISM non-manufacturing index (started in January 2008) and the ISM non-manufacturing employment diffusion index.

----- Friday, July 6th -----
Early: Reis Q2 2012 Mall vacancy rates.

8:30 AM: Employment Report for June. The consensus is for an increase of 90,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, up from the 69,000 jobs added in May.

The consensus is for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 8.2%.

This second employment graph shows the percentage of payroll jobs lost during post WWII recessions through May.

The economy has added 3.77 million jobs since employment bottomed in February 2010 (4.27 million private sector jobs added, and 502 thousand public sector jobs lost).

There are still 4.7 million fewer private sector jobs now than when the recession started in 2007. (5.0 million fewer total nonfarm jobs).

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2012 08:01:00 AM

The top economic story last week was the eurozone deal. From the Financial Times:

The agreement will result in EU bailout funds eventually being injected directly into teetering Spanish financial institutions, meaning Madrid can sweep the burden of the bailouts off its sovereign books.

However, the rescue for Spain’s banks will only come after the creation of a single banking supervisor to be run by the European Central Bank.

The summit agreement also contained some concessions for Italy ... setting the stage for Rome to become the sixth eurozone country to request EU assistance ...
excerpt with permission

As always, beware of the details!

In the US, housing continues to improves, however manufacturing was soft in June - and consumer spending was flat in May. For housing, new home sales were up solidly, and house prices - as reported by Case-Shiller - increased in April. Also the Pending Home sales index increased 5.9% in May.

Here is a summary of last week in graphs:

• New Home Sales increased in May to 369,000 Annual Rate

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The Census Bureau reports New Home Sales in May were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 369 thousand. This was up from 343 thousand SAAR in April. Sales in February and March were revised up.

The first graph shows New Home Sales vs. recessions since 1963. The dashed line is the current sales rate.

On inventory, according to the Census Bureau:

"A house is considered for sale when a permit to build has been issued in permit-issuing places or work has begun on the footings or foundation in nonpermit areas and a sales contract has not been signed nor a deposit accepted."

Starting in 1973 the Census Bureau broke this down into three categories: Not Started, Under Construction, and Completed.

This graph shows the three categories of inventory starting in 1973.

The inventory of completed homes for sale was at a record low 43,000 units in May. The combined total of completed and under construction is at the lowest level since this series started.

New home sales have averaged 353 thousand SAAR over the first 5 months of 2012, after averaging under 300 thousand for the previous 18 months. All of the recent revisions have been up too. This was a very solid report and above the consensus forecast.
All New Home Sales graphs
• Case Shiller: House Prices increased in April

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for April (a 3 month average of February, March and April).

This first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 33.3% from the peak, and up 0.7% in April (SA). The Composite 10 is up from the post bubble low set in March, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

The Composite 20 index is off 33.0% from the peak, and up 0.7% (SA) in April. The Composite 20 is also up from the post-bubble low set in March (NSA).

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 2.2% compared to April 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is down 1.9% compared to April 2011. This was a smaller year-over-year decline for both indexes than in March.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices increased (SA) in 17 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April seasonally adjusted (18 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 61.1% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 6.2% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through April 2012) is the lowest for only a couple of cities.

This was better than the consensus forecast, and the NSA indexes are above the post-bubble lows set last month (NSA).
All Current House Price Graphs
• Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio

Case-Shiller, CoreLogic and others report nominal house prices, and it is also useful to look at house prices in real terms (adjusted for inflation) and as a price-to-rent ratio. Below are three graphs showing nominal prices (as reported), real prices and a price-to-rent ratio. Real prices, and the price-to-rent ratio, are back to late 1998 and early 2000 levels depending on the index.

This graph shows the quarterly Case-Shiller National Index SA (through Q1 2012), and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA and CoreLogic House Price Indexes (through April) in nominal terms as reported.

In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA) is back to Q4 2002 levels, and even with the recent small increase, the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) is back to March 2003 levels, and the CoreLogic index (NSA) is back to May 2003.

The second graph shows the same three indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices.

In real terms, the National index is back to Q4 1998 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2000, and the CoreLogic index back to February 2000.

As we've discussed before, in real terms, all of the appreciation in the '00s is gone.

This graph shows a price to rent ratio using the Case-Shiller National, Composite 20 and CoreLogic House Price Indexes.

This graph shows the price to rent ratio (January 1998 = 1.0).

On a price-to-rent basis, the Case-Shiller National index is back to Q4 1998 levels, the Composite 20 index is back to March 2000 levels, and the CoreLogic index is back to April 2000.

In real terms - and as a price-to-rent ratio - prices are mostly back to late 1990s or early 2000 levels.
All Current House Price Graphs
• Personal Income increased 0.2% in May, Spending decreased slightly

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May.
This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. You can really see the slow down in Q2 of last year.

Using the two-month method, it appears real PCE will increase around 1.4% in Q2 (PCE is the largest component of GDP); the mid-month method suggests an increase of less than 1% in Q2. Also - so far - it appears spending is soft in June, so Q2 PCE growth will probably be fairly weak.

Another key point is the PCE price index has only increased 1.5% over the last year, and core PCE is up 1.8%. And it looks like the year-over-year increases will decline further in June.

• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims mostly unchanged

The DOL reports:

In the week ending June 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 386,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 392,000. The 4-week moving average was 386,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous week's revised average of 387,500.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims declined slightly to 386,750.

This is just off the high for the year.

All current Employment Graphs
• Regional Manufacturing Surveys

Regional surveys were mostly weak in June with the exception of the Dallas survey. From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Tenth District Manufacturing Eased Further Activity Slowed

From the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Eased in June, But Expectations Remained Upbeat

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Activity Surges but Outlook Largely Unchanged

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through June), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through June) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through May (right axis).

The ISM index for June will be released Monday, July 2nd, and these surveys suggest some decrease from the 53.5 reading in May.

• Other Economic Stories ...
• NAR: Pending home sales index increased 5.9% in May
• Housing: Inventory and Negative Equity
• A QE Timeline
• Consumer Sentiment declines in June to 73.2

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2012 08:35:00 PM

This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for June 29, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

The Unofficial Problem Bank List finished the first half of 2012 with 917 institutions with assets of $354.6 billion. A year ago, the list held 1,003 institutions with assets of $419.9 billion, which was the peak level in terms of assets. Net change for the month was a decline of 14 institutions and $3.4 billion of assets.

This week, there were six removals and two additions. Action terminations include TNBank, Oak Ridge, TN ($177 million); Pan Pacific Bank, Fremont, CA ($116 million Ticker: PPFC); First Community Bank, Hammond, LA ($115 million); Columbus Community Bank, Columbus, GA ($109 million); and Ericson State Bank, Ericson, NE ($49 million). The other removal -- The Palm Bank, Tampa, FL ($117 million) -- came from an unassisted merger.

The additions include Putnam Bank, Putnam, CT ($450 million Ticker: PSBH) and First Bank of Miami, Coral Gables, FL ($248 million). The other change is the FDIC issuing a Prompt Corrective Action order against McHenry Savings Bank, McHenry, IL ($262 million).

With the passage of the calendar quarter, it is time to update the transition matrix. As seen in the table, there have been a total of 1,552 institutions with assets of $802.2 billion that have appeared on the list. About 41 percent or 635 institutions with assets of $369.4 billion have been removed from the list. Failure has been the prior manner of exodus as 330 institutions with assets of $286.0 billion have failed since appearing on the list. Since the list first appeared on August 7, 2009, 31 institutions have failed without being on the unofficial list. Removals from unassisted mergers and voluntary liquidations total 106 institutions.

Actions have been terminated against 199 institutions with assets of $93.5 billion. During the quarter, there was an acceleration in action terminations, particularly within the pool of institutions added after publication of the original list. This group had 44 terminations compared with six terminations in the original pool. Overall, 5.3 percent of the 948 institutions on the list at the start of the second quarter were removed because of action termination. For comparison purposes, the action termination rate was 3.3 percent in the first quarter of 2012 and 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2011. Some cynical observers would say the acceleration in the termination rate results from industry outcry and Congressional pressure on the banking regulators. The difference in the termination rates among the pools may provide some insights as to vintage severity. In other words, were the early arrivers on the list in worse condition than the late comers?

Unofficial Problem Bank List
Change Summary
		Number of Institutions	Assets ($Thousands)
Start (8/7/2009)		389	276,313,429
Subtractions
	Action Terminated	71	(20,287,691)
	Unassisted Merger	21	(3,538,086)
	Voluntary Liquidation	2	(4,855,164)
	Failures	144	(181,206,086)
	Asset Change		(14,743,502)
Still on List at 6/30/2012		145	51,682,900
Additions		772	302,966,255
End (6/30/2012)		917	354,649,155
Intraperiod Deletions1
	Action Terminated	122	73,210,715
	Unassisted Merger	78	43,642,243
	Voluntary Liquidation	5	1,259,188
	Failures	186	104,832,833
	Total	391	222,944,979
1Institutions not on 8/7/2009 or 6/30/2012 list but appeared on a list between these dates.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2012 04:41:00 PM

Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency rate declined in May to 3.57% from 3.63% April. The serious delinquency rate is down from 4.14% in May last year, and this is the lowest level since April 2009.

The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%.

Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate declined slightly in May to 3.50%, from 3.51% in April. Freddie's rate is only down from 3.53% in May 2011. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%.

These are loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".

Click on graph for larger image

I don't know why Fannie's delinquency rate is falling faster than for Freddie.

The "normal" serious delinquency rate is under 1%, so there is a long way to go.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2012 02:00:00 PM

Away from Europe ...

From the National Restaurant Association: Restaurant Performance Index Remains Above 100 for Seventh Consecutive Month, Reflecting Continued Positive Sales

The RPI – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 101.4 in May, down 0.2 percent from April’s level of 101.6. Despite the decline, May represented the seventh consecutive month that the RPI stood above 100, which signifies expansion in the index of key industry indicators.

“Despite a soft patch in the overall economy, restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales for the 12th consecutive month,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of the Research and Knowledge Group for the Association. “Looking forward, restaurant operators remain generally optimistic about sales growth in the months ahead, though they are somewhat less bullish about the direction of the economy.”

Restaurant operators reported positive same-store sales for the 12th consecutive month in May ... While sales results remained positive, restaurant operators reported softer customer traffic results in May.

Click on graph for larger image.

The index decreased to 101.4 in May, down from 101.6 in April (above 100 indicates expansion).

Restaurant spending is discretionary, so even though this is "D-list" data, I like to check it every month - and the index has been positive all year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2012 11:29:00 AM

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® Reports 63,000 completed foreclosures in May

CoreLogic ... today released its National Foreclosure Report for May, which provides monthly data on completed foreclosures and the overall foreclosure inventory. According to the report, there were 63,000 completed foreclosures in the U.S. in May 2012 compared to 77,000 in May 2011 and 62,000 in April 2012. Since the financial crisis began in September 2008, there have been approximately 3.6 million completed foreclosures across the country. Completed foreclosures are an indication of the total number of homes actually lost to foreclosure.

Approximately 1.4 million homes, or 3.4 percent of all homes with a mortgage, were in the national foreclosure inventory as of May 2012 compared to 1.5 million, or 3.5 percent, in May 2011 and 1.4 million, or 3.4 percent, in April 2012.

“There were more than 819,000 completed foreclosures over the past year, or an average of 2,440 completed foreclosures every day over the last 12 months,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “Although the level of completed foreclosures remains high, it is down 27 percent from a peak of 1.1 million in all of 2010.”
...
“Though the national foreclosure inventory levels remain steady, around 1.4 million homes, there have been dramatic shifts at the state level,” said Anand Nallathambi, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “Nevada, Arizona and Michigan, for example, each experienced at least a 20-percent decline in the foreclosure inventory from a year ago. While foreclosure inventories in most states are declining, the foreclosure inventory is still rising in many judicial states, such as Hawaii, New York and Connecticut.”

So far we haven't seen a surge in completed foreclosures - or a large increase in REO (lender Real Estate Owned) coming on the market. Note: The foreclosure inventory reported by CoreLogic is lower than the number reported by LPS of 4.12% of mortgages or 2 million in foreclosure, and the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Q1 report showing 4.39% of loans in the foreclosure process.

My guess is the "surge" in foreclosures this year will be less than many people expect, although there has been an increase in some judicial states.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2012 09:55:00 AM

Chicago PMI: The overall index increased to 52.9 in June, up from 52.7 in May. This was slightly below consensus expectations of 53.1 and indicates slow growth in June. Note: any number above 50 shows expansion. From the Chicago ISM:

The Chicago Purchasing Managers reported the June Chicago Business Barometer stabilized just above May's 33 month low. The short-term trend of the Chicago Business Barometer fell for the third month. The three-month moving average of each Business Activity index, except Employment, fell in June.
...
• PRODUCTION rebounded; • NEW ORDERS and ORDER BACKLOGS lowest since September 2009; • PRICES PAID were at a 30 month low.

New orders declined to 51.9 from 52.9, and employment increased to 60.4 from 57.0.


Click on graph for larger image.

The final Reuters / University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for June declined to 73.2, down from the May reading of 79.3, and the preliminary June reading of 74.1.

This was below the consensus forecast of 74.1 and the lowest level this year. Overall sentiment is still weak - and apparently the weak job market and sluggish economy are outweighing any positive impact from falling gasoline prices.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2012 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for May:

Personal income increased $25.4 billion, or 0.2 percent ... in May, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $4.7 billion, or less than 0.1 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- increased 0.1 percent in May, the same increase as in April. ... PCE price index -- The price index for PCE decreased 0.2 percent in May, compared with an increase of less than 0.1 percent in April. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent in May, the same increase as in April.

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through May (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows real PCE by month for the last few years. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. You can really see the slow down in Q2 of last year.

Using the two-month method, it appears real PCE will increase around 1.4% in Q2 (PCE is the largest component of GDP); the mid-month method suggests an increase of less than 1% in Q2. Also - so far - it appears spending is soft in June, so Q2 PCE growth will probably be fairly weak.

Another key point is the PCE price index has only increased 1.5% over the last year, and core PCE is up 1.8%. And it looks like the year-over-year increases will decline further in June.

by Calculated Risk on 6/28/2012 09:43:00 PM

The focus tomorrow will be on the end of the two day European summit in Brussels. There will probably be some sort of agreement on a "growth pact". The Financial Times is live blogging the European summit: EU summit: Live blog

And late today, Ford said that the European recession will really hit Q2 earnings. From the NY Times: Ford Motor, Citing Europe’s Woes, Says Foreign Losses to Triple in Quarter

The company said on Thursday that its total international losses would triple in the second quarter, with Europe accounting for the most of the loss. Ford lost $190 million in the first quarter in its international operations ...

The company’s chief financial officer, Robert Shanks, said in an interview that conditions in Europe were “getting tougher,” as manufacturers stepped up discounts to jump-start sales, which are at their lowest level in more than a decade.

On Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Personal Income and Outlays report for May will be released. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income in May, and for no change in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%. Note: Q1 PCE was revised down slightly in the third estimate of GDP released this morning.


• At 9:45 AM, The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for June. The consensus is for an increase to 53.1, up from 52.7 in May.

• At 9:55 AM, The final June Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index will be released. The consensus is for no change from the preliminary reading of 74.1.