by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2012 09:33:00 AM

From ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Up 0.2% in March

The American Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted (SA) For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.2% in March after increasing 0.5% in February. (February’s rise was unchanged from the preliminary gain we reported on March 27th.) The SA index stood at 119.5 (2000=100), up from 119.3 in February. Compared with March 2011, the SA index was up 2.7%, which was the smallest year-over-year increase since December 2009.
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“March tonnage, and the first quarter overall, was reflective of an economy that is growing, but growing moderately,” ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello said. “The pace of freight definitely slowed from the torrid pace in late 2011.”

“Most economic indicators still look good, which will continue to support tonnage going forward,” he said. Costello also noted that the industry should not expect the rate of growth seen over the last couple of years, when tonnage grew 5.8% in both 2010 and 2011. “Expect tonnage overall this year to be up at a more moderate rate, perhaps less than 3%, which is more in-line with normal growth.”

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a long term graph that shows ATA's For-Hire Truck Tonnage index.

The dashed line is the current level of the index. The index is above the pre-recession level and up 2.7% year-over-year. More sluggish growth.

From ATA:

Trucking serves as a barometer of the U.S. economy, representing 67.2% of tonnage carried by all modes of domestic freight transportation, including manufactured and retail goods. Trucks hauled 9 billion tons of freight in 2010. Motor carriers collected $563.4 billion, or 81.2% of total revenue earned by all transport modes.

All current Transportation Graphs

by Calculated Risk on 4/25/2012 08:39:00 AM

Form the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease Despite Survey Low Rates in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

The Refinance Index decreased 5.6 percent from the previous week, with the Conventional Refinance Index decreasing by 6.1 percent and the Government Refinance Index decreasing by 2.1 percent. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 2.7 percent from one week earlier.
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The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 73.4 percent of total applications from 75.2 percent the previous week.
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($417,500 or less) decreased to 4.04 percent from 4.05 percent,with points decreasing to 0.40 from 0.45 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. This is the lowest 30-year fixed interest rate recorded in the history of the survey.
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The average contract interest rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 3.32 percent from 3.33 percent, while points remained unchanged at 0.41 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent LTV loans. This is the lowest 15-year fixed interest rate recorded in the history of the survey.

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2012 11:06:00 PM

A few miscellaneous articles ...

• From Kathleen Pender at the San Francisco Chronicle: California Fed-Ed jobless benefits to end mid-May

Starting in mid-May, no one in California can begin or continue receiving this final round of federal benefits, known as Fed-Ed in California and Extended Benefits elsewhere.

About 90,000 Californians are receiving Fed-Ed. Their benefits will end abruptly in mid-May, even if they still have weeks remaining in their Fed-Ed claim.

The program's end will reduce the maximum weeks of unemployment to 79 from 99 for most people in California, although a small segment can get up to 89.

Update: California has one of the highest state unemployment rates at 11%, so it seemed a little weird that California workers would lose the Fed-Ed benefits. However, aocording to the Record Searchlight (ht josap), the Fed-Ed program requires that the unemployment rate be "10% higher than it was during the same three-month period during one of the last three years".

• Earlier today from the Richmond Fed: Manufacturing Activity Picks Up the Pace in April; Expectations Remain Upbeat

In April, the seasonally adjusted composite index of manufacturing activity — our broadest measure of manufacturing — advanced seven points to 14 from March's reading of 7. ... The manufacturing employment index moved up four points to end at 10, and the average workweek indicator edged up one point to 3. The wage index added three points to 14.

This was slightly above expectations of a reading of 8.

• From the FHFA: FHFA House Price Index Up 0.3 Percent in February

U.S. house prices rose 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from January to February, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s monthly House Price Index. ... For the 12 months ending in February, U.S. prices rose 0.4 percent, the first 12-month increase since the July 2006 - July 2007 interval.

The FHFA monthly index is for Fannie and Freddie loans only. Fannie and Freddie have significantly lower default rates than the overall market, and that probably has helped stabilize this index.

On March New Home Sales:
• New Home Sales in March at 328,000 Annual Rate
• Comments on Housing and "Distressing Gap" Graph • New Home Sales graphs

On House Prices:
• Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in February NSA
• Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio at late '90s Levels
• House Price graphs

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2012 08:02:00 PM

From the Philly Fed:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for March 2012. In the past month, the indexes increased in 48 states, decreased in one state (Rhode Island), and remained stable in one state (South Dakota), for a one-month diffusion index of 94. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in all 50 states, for a three-month diffusion index of 100.

Note: These are coincident indexes constructed from state employment data. From the Philly Fed:

The coincident indexes combine four state-level indicators to summarize current economic conditions in a single statistic. The four state-level variables in each coincident index are nonfarm payroll employment, average hours worked in manufacturing, the unemployment rate, and wage and salary disbursements deflated by the consumer price index (U.S. city average). The trend for each state’s index is set to the trend of its gross domestic product (GDP), so long-term growth in the state’s index matches long-term growth in its GDP.

Click on graph for larger image.

This is a graph is of the number of states with one month increasing activity according to the Philly Fed. This graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

In March, 49 states had increasing activity, up from 47 in February. The number of states with increasing activity has been at or above 47 for the last seven consecutive months.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. This map was all red during the worst of the recession.

Now the map is all green. The recovery may be sluggish, but it is widespread geographically.

On March New Home Sales:
• New Home Sales in March at 328,000 Annual Rate
• Comments on Housing and "Distressing Gap" Graph • New Home Sales graphs

On House Prices:
• Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in February NSA
• Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio at late '90s Levels
• House Price graphs

by Calculated Risk on 4/24/2012 04:15:00 PM

LPS released their First Look report for March today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent declined in March from February. However the percent of loans in the foreclosure process remained at a very high level.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) declined to 7.09% from 7.57% in February. This is the lowest delinquency rate since August 2008; however the percent of delinquent loans is still significantly above the normal rate of around 4.5% to 5%. The percent of delinquent loans peaked at 10.97%, so delinquencies have fallen over half way back to normal. Note: There is a seasonal pattern for delinquencies, and it is not unusual to see a decline in March.

The following table shows the LPS numbers for March 2012, and also for last month (Feb 2012) and one year ago (Mar 2011).

LPS: Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure
	Mar-12	Feb-12	Mar-11
Delinquent	7.09%	7.57%	7.78%
In Foreclosure	4.14%	4.13%	4.21%
Loans Less than 90 days	1,888,000	2,059,000	2,122,000
Loans More than 90 days	1,643,000	1,722,000	1,989,000
Loans In foreclosure	2,060,000	2,065,000	2,222,000
Total	5,591,000	5,846,000	6,333,000

The number of delinquent loans is down about 14% year-over-year (580,000 fewer mortgages deliquent), but the number of loans in the foreclosure process has only declined slightly year-over-year. This remains far above the "normal" level of around 0.5%.

On March New Home Sales:
• New Home Sales in March at 328,000 Annual Rate
• Comments on Housing and "Distressing Gap" Graph • New Home Sales graphs

On House Prices:
• Case Shiller: House Prices fall to new post-bubble lows in February NSA
• Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio at late '90s Levels
• House Price graphs