by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2011 12:24:00 PM

A few excerpts from Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders.

On Housing:

A housing recovery will probably begin within a year or so. In any event, it is certain to occur at some point.

He wrote the same thing last year:

[W]ithin a year or so residential housing problems should largely be behind us, the exceptions being only high-value houses and those in certain localities where overbuilding was particularly egregious.

Last year I disagreed, but now I think a recovery will probably "begin" within "a year or so".

On Clayton (manufactured homes):

At Clayton, we produced 23,343 homes, 47% of the industry’s total of 50,046. Contrast this to the peak year of 1998, when 372,843 homes were manufactured. (We then had an industry share of 8%.)

CR Note: This is close to the record low for manufacturing homes set in 2009 of 49.8 thousand units.

Clayton owns 200,804 mortgages that it originated. (It also has some mortgage portfolios that it purchased.) At the origination of these contracts, the average FICO score of our borrowers was 648, and 47% were 640 or below. Your banker will tell you that people with such scores are generally regarded as questionable credits.

Nevertheless, our portfolio has performed well during conditions of stress. ...

Our borrowers get in trouble when they lose their jobs, have health problems, get divorced, etc. The recession has hit them hard. But they want to stay in their homes, and generally they borrowed sensible amounts in relation to their income. In addition, we were keeping the originated mortgages for our own account, which means we were not securitizing or otherwise reselling them. If we were stupid in our lending, we were going to pay the price. That concentrates the mind.

If home buyers throughout the country had behaved like our buyers, America would not have had the crisis that it did. Our approach was simply to get a meaningful down-payment and gear fixed monthly payments to a sensible percentage of income. This policy kept Clayton solvent and also kept buyers in their homes.

... a house can be a nightmare if the buyer’s eyes are bigger than his wallet and if a lender – often protected by a government guarantee – facilitates his fantasy. Our country’s social goal should not be to put families into the house of their dreams, but rather to put them into a house they can afford.

Note: The worst performing mortgages originated during the housing bubble were NOT protected by a government guarantee, instead they were the product of the Wall Street driven originate-to-distribute model. But I agree with Buffett's comments on how prudent lending "concentrates the mind", and about putting people into homes they can afford.

by Calculated Risk on 2/26/2011 08:51:00 AM

Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.

Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 25, 2011.

Changes and comments from surferdude808:

As anticipated, the FDIC released its enforcement actions for January 2011, which contributed to many changes for the Unofficial Problem Bank List. This week, there are three removals and 12 additions leaving the Unofficial Problem Bank List at 960 institutions. The net changes added $8.9 billion in assets, which is the largest weekly asset increase since June 18, 2010 when $19 billion was added. The average net weekly change has been about seven additions and $1.7 billion in assets. However, the aggregate assets on the list declined this week by $4.7 billion to $413.8 billion from $418.9 billion as 2010q3 financials were replaced by year-end figures. Positively, the change in financials caused a $13.6 billion decline in assets.

The three removals include the failed Valley Community Bank, St. Charles, IL ($124 million) and action terminations against Lafayette Community Bank, Lafayette, IN ($131 million) and American Continental Bank, City Of Industry, CA ($129 million).

Most notable among the 12 additions this week are BankAtlantic, Fort Lauderdale, FL ($4.5 billion Ticker: BBX); Bridgeview Bank Group, Bridgeview, IL ($1.5 billion); EVB, Tappahannock, VA ($1.1 billion Ticker: EVBS); PrimeSouth Bank, Blackshear, GA ($422 million); and West Pointe Bank, Oshkosh, WI ($409 million).

Other changes include the FDIC issuing a Prompt Corrective Action order against Seattle Bank, Seattle, WA ($468 million) and terminating one against Idaho First Bank, McCall, ID ($77 million).

After the monthly release of actions by the FDIC, it would not be unusual for the Unofficial Problem Bank List to trend down until the middle of next month as closings tend to outpace new order issuance during this part of the month. Until next week, try to have a safe & sound banking week.

CR Note: The FDIC released the Q4 Quarterly Banking Profile this week. The FDIC reported 884 official "problem" institutions at the end of 2010 (the highest since 1992) with $390 billion in assets. There are a total 6,529 commercial banks and 1,128 savings institutions, so about 11.5% are on the "problem" list. Assets of all institutions are $13.1 trillion, so problem institutions have just under 3% of total assets.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2011 09:15:00 PM

Update: From Cheyenne Hopkins at American Banker: Don't Believe Everything You Read: The Real Skinny on Servicer Settlement Talks (ht Nemo)

Regulators have not agreed on a dollar figure, and $20 billion is in the words of one source involved in the negotiations "a crazy figure."

From Nelson Schwartz and Eric Dash at the NY Times DealBook: 3 Banks Warn of Big Penalties in Mortgage Inquiries

Several big banks warned investors on Friday that they could face sizable financial penalties as a result of state and federal investigations into abusive mortgage practices.
...
The state and federal inquiries “could result in material fines, penalties, equitable remedies (including requiring default servicing or other process changes), or other enforcement actions, and result in significant legal costs,” Bank of America said

Wells Fargo said in its filing that it was “likely that one or more of the government agencies will initiate some type of enforcement action,” including possible “civil money penalties.”

Citigroup acknowledged that federal and state regulators were investigating its foreclosure processes, which could result in increased expenses, fines and other legal remedies ...

Earlier stories suggested the penalties and "equitable remedies" could total $20 billion for all mortgage servicers.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2011 06:06:00 PM

Midwest core meltdowns
Radioactive assets
Toxicity rise
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: First State Bank, Mendota, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Valley Community Bank, St. Charles, Illinois

As of December 31, 2010, Valley Community Bank had approximately $123.8 million in total assets and $124.2 million in total deposits ... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $22.8 million. ... Valley Community Bank is the 23rd FDIC-insured institution to fail in the nation this year, and the second in Illinois.

It is Friday ...

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2011 04:54:00 PM

Yesterday I noted that the combined REO (Real Estate Owned) inventory for Fannie, Freddie and the FHA increased 71% compared to Q4 2009 (year-over-year comparison). As I noted, this is just a portion of the total REO inventory. Private label securities and banks and thrifts also hold a substantial number of REOs.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph from economist Tom Lawler shows an estimate of all the REO inventory. Lawler writes:

Based on the FDIC’s QBP report, as well as preliminary data on REO for private-label securities (using Barclay’s Capital data, as I don’t have data from my other source yet), REO inventory at “the F’s,” FDIC-insured institutions, and PLS would look as follows [see graph]

From CR: REO inventory is still below the levels in 2008 - but not much - and that was when prices were falling quickly. I think the various lenders are a little more careful disposing of REOs now, but the level of REOs suggest downward house price pressure.

The 2nd graph (repeated from yesterday) just shows the REO inventory for Fannie, Freddie and FHA through Q4 2010.

The REO inventory for the "Fs" has increased sharply over the last year, from 172,368 at the end of 2009 to a record 295,307 at the end of 2010. Although this slowed in Q4 - as the "Fs" slowed foreclosures - this will probably increase some more in 2011.

by Calculated Risk on 2/25/2011 03:20:00 PM

This speech from Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen provides the Fed's view of the impact of QE2: Unconventional Monetary Policy and Central Bank Communications (see Effectiveness of Asset Purchases and the associated graphs).

Yellen also commented on forward guidance:

Down the road, once the recovery is well established and the appropriate time for beginning to firm the stance of policy appears to be drawing near, the FOMC will naturally need to adjust its "extended period" guidance and develop an alternative communications strategy to shape market expectations about the policy outlook.

This is part of the timeline I outlined earlier this week: When will the Fed raise rates?

My view is the Fed will complete the $600 billion “QE2” large-scale asset purchase program (probably in June, but they may taper it off), then they will stop the reinvestment of maturing MBS and Treasury Securities (could be concurrent with the end of QE2), and then the FOMC will change the "extended period" language. That suggests the Fed will not raise until 2012 at the earliest.

Earlier today, Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker suggested QE2 might end early, via MarketWatch:

Federal Reserve should seriously consider adjusting its $600 billion bond-buying program in light of a recent pickup in U.S. economic activity, said Jeffrey Lacker, president of the Richmond Federal Reserve Bank, on Tuesday.
...
“The distinct improvement in the economic outlook since the [bond-buying] program was initiated suggests taking that re-evaluation quite seriously,” Lacker said ...

I think it is very unlikely the program will end early. Note: I've heard suggestions that high oil prices might lead to an expanded QE2 (or QE3) - that also seems unlikely to me at this point. It would probably take renewed weakness in the U.S. economy before we see additional stimulus.