RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 11:01:00 PM
Saturday, February 05, 2011
Jim the Realtor is assigned a "premium" REO
Jim posted two videos on REOs tonight.
One video shows some mid-to-high end REOs hitting the market. I'm familiar with the REO at 4:13 in the linked video - I looked at this one (4,543' backs to golf course with slight ocean view). Sold at auction for $945,000 no takers - well below other recent sales in the area! Jim thinks there will be REOs coming on the market this year.
And the second video is pretty funny:
Schedule for Week of Feb 6th
by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 07:26:00 PM
The key report this week will be the December trade deficit on Friday. Also Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke will testify before the House Committee on the Budget on Wednesday.
3:00 PM: Consumer Credit for December. The consensus is a $2 billion increase in consumer credit.
7:30 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for January. This index has been showing small businesses have become a little less pessimistic recently, however the respondents continue to say that the major concern is the lack of customers.
8:45 AM: Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on the economic outlook at the University of Delaware.
10:00 AM: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey for December from the BLS. This report has been showing a general increase in job openings, but very little turnover in the labor market.
Around 1:00 PM: Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart speaks in Alabama, and Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher speaks in Dallas.
7:00 AM: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the mortgage purchase applications index. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows the MBA Purchase Index and four week moving average since 1990.
The four-week moving average of the purchase index suggests weak existing home sales through the first few months of 2011.
Morning: CoStar Commercial Repeat-Sale Indices (CCRSI). This is a repeat sales index for commercial real estate.
10:00 AM: Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "The Economic Outlook and Monetary and Fiscal Policy" before the House Committee on the Budget, U.S. House of Representatives
5:45 PM: NY Fed Vice President Brian Sack speaks on "Implementing the Federal Reserve’s Asset Purchase Program" (aka QE2) at the Philadelphia Fed.
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The number of initial claims had been trending down over the last few months. The consensus is for a decrease to 410,000 from 415,000 last week.
10:00 AM: Monthly Wholesale Trade: Sales and Inventories for December. The consensus is 0.8% increase in inventories.
8:30 AM: Trade Balance report for December from the Census Bureau.
This graph shows the monthly U.S. exports and imports in dollars through November 2010.Imports have been mostly flat since May, and exports have started increasing again after the mid-year slowdown.
The consensus is for the U.S. trade deficit to increase to $40 billion from $38.3 billion in November.
9:55 AM: Reuters/University of Mich Consumer Sentiment preliminary for February. The consensus is for a slight increase to 75.0 from 74.2 in January.
After 4:00 PM: The FDIC will probably have another busy Friday afternoon.
9:00 PM: Fed Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin, "Mortgage Servicing Issues" At the 2011 Midwinter Housing Finance Conference, Park City, Utah
NMHC Quarterly Apartment Survey: Market Conditions Tighten
by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 03:15:00 PM
From the National Multi Housing Council (NMHC): Equity Capital Eyes The Apartment Sector Says NMHC Quarterly Market Conditions Survey
For the second consecutive quarter, 60% of respondents said markets were tighter (lower vacancies and/or higher rents) than three months ago. The Market Tightness Index recorded its second-highest January reading on record at 78.
...
"Rising apartment demand reflects a drop in demand for homeownership in today's marketplace," said NMHC Chief Economist Mark Obrinsky. "This growing demand against the backdrop of the lowest apartment starts in 40 years—barely enough to offset the units lost to demolition and obsolescence—will result in further tightening in the apartment sector in the near term."
Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.
This graph shows the quarterly Apartment Tightness Index.
The index has indicated tighter market conditions for the last four quarters. A reading above 50 suggests the vacancy rate is falling.
This fits with the recent Reis data showing apartment vacancy rates fell in Q4 2010 to 6.6%, down from 7.1% in Q3 2010, and 8% in the Q4 2009.
Also this data is a survey of large apartment owners only. The data released last week from the Census Bureau showed the rental vacancy rate also declined for all rental units too. The Census Bureau rental vacancy rate declined sharply to 9.4% in Q4 2010, from 10.3% in Q3 2010.
A final note: This index helped me call the bottom for effective rates (and the top for vacancy rate) last year. Based on limited historical data, this index appears to lead reported apartment rents by about 6 months to 1 year.
Color Commentary for the Week
by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 11:21:00 AM
Commentary this week:
• Monday: QE2 Speculation and Summary
• Tuesday: Economic Outlook and Daily Summary
• Wednesday: Daily Color: D-List Data
• Thursday: Employment Situation: A Lighter Shade of Gray
• Friday: Daily Color: Two Employment Surveys, Different Results
Click on graph for larger image.
A repeat from yesterday ...
This graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms - aligned at maximum job losses.
In terms of lost payroll jobs, the 2007 recession is by far the worst since WWII, and the "recovery" for payroll jobs is one of the slowest.
Here are the employment posts from yesterday (with graphs):
• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes
• Employment Graph Gallery
Unofficial Problem Bank list at 946 Institutions
by Calculated Risk on 2/05/2011 08:29:00 AM
Note: this is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Feb 4, 2011.
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
Mergers, both unassisted and FDIC- assisted, contributed to a slight reduction in the number of institutions on the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week. There were five removals and two additions, which leaves the list with 946 institutions with assets of $411.1 compared with 948 institutions with $410.9 billion last week.
The removals include the three failures this week -- American Trust Bank, Roswell, GA ($249 million); North Georgia Bank, Watkinsville, GA ($166 million); and Community First Bank - Chicago, Chicago, IL ($57 million).
Since the on-set of this banking crisis, there have been 55 failures in the state of Georgia that have cost the FDIC approximately $8.06 billion or 33 percent of $24.4 billion of failed assets.
The other removals were unassisted acquisitions of Professional Business Bank, Pasadena, CA ($281 million) by California General Bank, which re-named itself Professional Business Bank; and Midwest Community Bank, Plainville, KS ($99 million) by The Wilson State Bank.
The additions were First Georgia Banking Company, Franklin, GA ($802 million) and Atlantic Bank and Trust, Charleston, SC ($268 million). Hat tip to reader Bill for noting the action against First Georgia Banking Company while perusing its 10-K filing. In an oddly worded statement, First Georgia Banking Company stated it had entered into a "Stipulation and Consent Order" with the Georgia State Banking Department in August 2010 that "was acknowledged by the FDIC." However, the action is not available through the FDIC enforcement action search engine. Similarly, the action against North Georgia Bank, which failed this week, was never available on the FDIC website. Perhaps these actions were like being on "double secret probation" with the FDIC.
Friday, February 04, 2011
Bank Failure #14 for 2011: Community First Bank – Chicago
by Calculated Risk on 2/04/2011 09:20:00 PM
Here are the earlier employment posts (with graphs):
• January Employment Report: 36,000 Jobs, 9.0% Unemployment Rate
• Employment Summary and Part Time Workers, Unemployed over 26 Weeks
• Daily Color: Two Employment Surveys, Different Results
• Duration of Unemployment, Unemployment by Education, Diffusion Indexes
• Employment Graph Gallery
Cold hard cash assets frozen
Till White Knight appears.
by Soylent Green is People
From the FDIC: Northbrook Bank and Trust Company, Northbrook, Illinois, Assumes All of the Deposits of Community First Bank – Chicago, Chicago, Illinois
As of December 31, 2010, Community First Bank – Chicago had approximately $51.1 million in total assets and $49.5 million in total deposits.... The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be $11.7 million.
