by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2015 12:00:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q4 2014 Flow of Funds report today: Flow of Funds.

According to the Fed, household net worth increased in Q4 compared to Q3:

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $82.9 trillion during the fourth quarter of 2014. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $742 billion and the value of real estate rose $356 billion.

Prior to the recession, net worth peaked at $67.9 trillion in Q2 2007, and then net worth fell to $54.9 trillion in Q1 2009 (a loss of $13.0 trillion). Household net worth was at $82.9 trillion in Q4 2014 (up $28.0 trillion from the trough in Q1 2009).

The Fed estimated that the value of household real estate increased to $20.6 trillion in Q4 2014. The value of household real estate is still $1.9 trillion below the peak in early 2006.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  Household net worth, as a percent of GDP, is close to the peak in 2006 (housing bubble), and above the stock bubble peak.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

This ratio was increasing gradually since the mid-70s, and then we saw the stock market and housing bubbles. The ratio has been trending up but has moved sideways over the last year.

This graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q4 2014, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 54.5% - up from Q3, and the highest since Q1 2007. This was because of an increase in house prices in Q4 (the Fed uses CoreLogic).

Note: about 30.3% of owner occupied households had no mortgage debt as of April 2010. So the approximately 50+ million households with mortgages have far less than 54.5% equity - and millions still have negative equity.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.

Mortgage debt increased by $5 billion in Q4.

Mortgage debt has declined by $1.26 trillion from the peak. Studies suggest most of the decline in debt has been because of foreclosures (or short sales), but some of the decline is from homeowners paying down debt (sometimes so they can refinance at better rates).

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, was up slightly in Q4, and somewhat above the average of the last 30 years (excluding bubble).

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2015 09:25:00 AM

Catching up: The DOL reported:

In the week ending March 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 289,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 5,000 from 320,000 to 325,000. The 4-week moving average was 302,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 1,250 from 304,750 to 306,000.

There were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.

The previous week was revised up to 325,000.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

Click on graph for larger image.


The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 302,250.

This was below the consensus forecast of 300,000, and the low level of the 4-week average suggests few layoffs.

by Calculated Risk on 3/12/2015 08:42:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.6% from January to February (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 1.7% from February 2014. Sales in December were unrevised at a 0.8% decrease.

From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for February, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $437.0 billion, a decrease of 0.6 percent from the previous month, but up 1.7 percent above February 2014. ... The December 2014 to January 2015 percent change was unrevised from -0.8 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales ex-gasoline decreased 0.8%.

Retail sales ex-autos decreased 0.1%. 

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail and Food service sales ex-gasoline increased by 5.1% on a YoY basis (1.7% for all retail sales).

The decrease in February was below consensus expectations of a 0.3% increase.  This was a weak report.

by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2015 08:11:00 PM

Thursday:
• 8:30 AM ET, Retail sales for February will be released. On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.8% from December to January (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 3.3% from January 2014. The consensus is for retail sales to increase 0.3% in February, and to increase 0.5% ex-autos.

• Also at 8:30 AM, the initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for claims to decrease to 309 thousand from 320 thousand.

• At 10:00 AM, Manufacturing and Trade: Inventories and Sales (business inventories) report for January. The consensus is for a 0.1% increase in inventories.

• At 12:00 PM, the Q4 Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States from the Federal Reserve.

• At 2:00 PM ET, the Monthly Treasury Budget Statement for February.

by Calculated Risk on 3/11/2015 04:41:00 PM

From the Federal Reserve: Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR)

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday announced it has not objected to the capital plans of 28 bank holding companies participating in the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR). One institution received a conditional non-objection based on qualitative grounds, and the Federal Reserve objected to two firms' plans on qualitative grounds.
...
The Federal Reserve did not object to the capital plan of Bank of America Corporation, but is requiring the institution to submit a new capital plan by the end of the third quarter to address certain weaknesses in its capital planning processes. The Federal Reserve objected to the capital plans of Deutsche Bank Trust Corporation and Santander Holdings USA on qualitative concerns.

From the WSJ: Federal Reserve Rejects 2 Banks’ Capital Plans in Annual ‘Stress Tests’

Twenty-eight of 31 large banks received Federal Reserve approval to return capital to investors on Wednesday but only after some of the biggest Wall Street firms came perilously close to failing the regulator’s annual “stress test.”

A 29th firm, Bank of America Corp. , received conditional approval of its capital plan and can move forward with boosting dividends or stock buybacks, but must resubmit its proposal to address “certain weaknesses” including its ability to measure losses and revenue, the Fed said. ... The Fed rejected the capital plans of two large banks, the U.S. units of Deutsche Bank AG and Banco Santander SA, for “qualitative” deficiencies including ability to model losses and identify risks. ...

Deutsche Bank, which took the stress test for the first time this year, was rejected for “numerous and significant deficiencies” across several areas of the capital planning process including the bank’s ability to identify risks, the Fed said.