Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Lawler: Census 2010: Homeownership Rates by Selected Age Groups

by Bill McBride on 8/31/2011 07:22:00 PM

Update from Lawler: Yesterday I gave some stats on the "states" with the highest and lowest shares of owner-occupied homes owned free and clear. Those %'s were incorrect; they were %'s for the % of ALL occupied homes owner free and clear. (My bad).

From economist Tom Lawler:

While Census has not released “Summary File 1” for the US as a whole, it has released such data for all 50 states plus DC. As such, aggregate US data from these files, including homeownership rates by selected age groups, can be constructed using the mathematical tools called “addition” and “division.”

Note the sizable declines in homeownership rates over the last decade in the 25-54 year old age groups!

US Homeownership by Age Group (Decennial Census)
 1980199020002010
15 to 24 years22.1%17.1%17.9%16.1%
25 to 34 years51.6%45.3%45.6%42.0%
35 to 44 years71.2%66.2%66.2%62.3%
45 to 54 years77.0%75.3%74.9%71.5%
55 to 64 years77.6%79.7%79.8%77.3%
65 years and over70.1%75.2%78.1%77.5%
Total64.4%64.2%66.2%65.1%


Here is a comparison of the decennial Census homeownership rates (which reflect April 1st) and the Housing Vacancy Survey (which are yearly average estimates). HVS data by age group only go back to 1982.

US Homeownership by Age Group (Housing Vacancy Survey)
 1980199020002010
15 to 24 years---15.7%21.7%22.8%
25 to 34 years---44.2%47.1%44.4%
35 to 44 years---66.3%67.9%65.0%
45 to 54 years---75.2%76.5%73.5%
55 to 64 years---79.3%80.3%79.0%
65 years and over---76.3%80.4%80.5%
Total---63.9%67.4%66.9%


While the decennial Census data show that the homeownership rates for all age groups save for “geezers” in 2010 were down significantly from 1990, the HVS data do not show the same declines. Census officials are unsure of why there are such large discrepancies, but most – though not all -- feel that the decennial Census data are more accurate, and that there is “sumpin’ wrong” with the HVS data (the same is true for the HVS vacancy data), and not just for 2010, but for 2000 as well.

Some readers might be surprised at the sizable declines in the homeownership rates for younger householders from 1980 to 1990 – after all, they’ve been deluged with charts showing “aggregate” US homeownership rates over the last several years, but with little or no discussion of homeownership rates by age group. There was actually a fair amount written about the drop in younger householder homeownership rates from 1980 to 1990, with researchers attributing the decline to a number of factors – younger folks marrying later in life, job choices and labor mobility, and several other factors (I don’t plan to summarize the literature.)

Also from Tom Lawler: Number of Homes Owned Free and Clear

Here is a table derived from the decennial Census 2010 on the number of owner-occupied homes with a mortgage vs. those owned free and clear.

Owner-Occupied Homes (Census 2010)
Total75,986,074
Owned with a mortgage or loan52,979,430
Owned free and clear23,006,644


Update: By state with correction:
% of OO Homes owned free and clear, 2010
US Total30.3%
Alabama36.6%
Alaska31.2%
Arizona27.9%
Arkansas38.9%
California22.3%
Colorado22.3%
Connecticut26.4%
Delaware28.2%
District of Columbia19.6%
Florida33.0%
Georgia25.6%
Hawaii29.3%
Idaho29.1%
Illinois28.3%
Indiana27.9%
Iowa34.8%
Kansas33.3%
Kentucky35.9%
Louisiana40.9%
Maine33.5%
Maryland21.2%
Massachusetts25.8%
Michigan31.3%
Minnesota27.2%
Mississippi41.5%
Missouri31.5%
Montana38.5%
Nebraska33.7%
Nevada21.4%
New Hampshire27.5%
New Jersey27.1%
New Mexico37.7%
New York33.0%
North Carolina30.3%
North Dakota42.9%
Ohio30.0%
Oklahoma37.7%
Oregon28.2%
Pennsylvania35.0%
Rhode Island26.2%
South Carolina33.9%
South Dakota39.1%
Tennessee34.1%
Texas34.4%
Utah23.7%
Vermont31.9%
Virginia25.3%
Washington25.6%
West Virginia47.7%
Wisconsin30.3%
Wyoming36.5%


CR Note: So, in 2010, about 30.3% of owner-occupied homes were owned free and clear. There will be much more on the 2010 Census data once the Summary File is released.

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