by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2012 01:15:00 PM

Last year economist Josh Lehner posted a number of charts and graphs as an update to work by Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff: This Time is Different, An Update

Today, Lehner updated a few graphs again (through August, 2012). See: Checking in on Financial Crises Recoveries. Here is one graph and an excerpt:

Click on graph for larger image.

From Lerner:

[W]hen the Great Recession is compared ... to the Big 5 financial crises and the U.S. Great Depression ... the current cycle actually compares pretty favorably. This is likely due to the coordinated global response to the immediate crises in late 2008 and early 2009. While the initial path of both the global and U.S. economies in 2008 and 2009 effectively matched the early years of the Great Depression – or worse – the strong policy response employed by nearly all major economies – both monetary and fiscal – helped stop the economic free fall.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2012 10:38:00 AM

From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Growth Picks Up

Texas factory activity increased in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose from 6.4 to 10, suggesting stronger output growth.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated growth in September. The new orders index rose to 5.3 following a reading of zero last month, suggesting a pickup in demand. The capacity utilization index advanced from 1.7 to 9.3, largely due to fewer manufacturers noting a decrease. The shipments index rose to 4.5, bouncing back into positive territory after falling to -2.3 in August.

Indexes reflecting broader business conditions were mixed. The general business activity index remained slightly negative but edged up from -1.6 to -0.9. The company outlook index was positive for the fifth month in a row but fell slightly to 2.4 from a reading of 4.1 in August.

Labor market indicators reflected slower labor demand growth and slightly longer workweeks. The employment index remained positive but fell to 5.9, its lowest reading in more than a year. Sixteen percent of firms reported hiring new workers, while 10 percent reported layoffs. The hours worked index moved up from -0.9 to 2.8.

This is still weak, and the general business activity index has been negative 5 of last 6 months.

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2012 09:08:00 AM

LPS released their First Look report for August today. LPS reported that the percent of loans delinquent decreased in August from July, and declined about 10% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process also decreased in August, but remain at a very high level.

LPS reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) decreased to 6.87% from 7.03% in July. The percent of delinquent loans is still significantly above the normal rate of around 4.5% to 5%. The percent of delinquent loans peaked at 10.57%, so delinquencies have fallen over half way back to normal. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process declined to 4.04%.

The table below shows the LPS numbers for August 2012, and also for last month (July 2012) and one year ago (August 2011).

The number of delinquent properties, but not in foreclosure, is down about 10% year-over-year (530,000 fewer properties delinquent), and the number of properties in the foreclosure process is down 5% or 100,000 year-over-year.

The percent of loans less than 90 days delinquent is close to normal, but the percent (and number) of loans 90+ days delinquent and in the foreclosure process is still very high.

LPS: Percent Loans Delinquent and in Foreclosure Process
	August 2012	July 2012	August 2011
Delinquent	6.87%	7.03%	7.68%
In Foreclosure	4.04%	4.08%	4.12%
Number of properties:
Number of properties that are 30 or more, and less than 90 days past due, but not in foreclosure:	1,910,000	1,960,000	2,240,000
Number of properties that are 90 or more days delinquent, but not in foreclosure:	1,520,000	1,560,000	1,720,000
Number of properties in foreclosure pre-sale inventory:	2,020,000	2,042,000	2,120,000
Total Properties	​5,450,000	5,562,000	6,080,000

by Calculated Risk on 9/24/2012 08:39:00 AM

The Chicago Fed released the national activity index (a composite index of other indicators): Economic Activity Weakened in August

Led by declines in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) decreased to –0.87 in August from –0.12 in July. All four broad categories of indicators that make up the index deteriorated from July, with each making a negative contribution to the index in August.

The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased from –0.26 in July to –0.47 in August—its lowest level since June 2011 and its sixth consecutive reading below zero. August’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity was below its historical trend. The economic growth reflected in this level of the CFNAI-MA3 suggests subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.

This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967.

Click on graph for larger image.

This suggests growth was below trend in August.

According to the Chicago Fed:

A zero value for the index indicates that the national economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth; negative values indicate below-average growth; and positive values indicate above-average growth.

by Calculated Risk on 9/23/2012 09:11:00 PM

On Monday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August will be released. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 9:00 AM, the LPS "First Look" Mortgage Delinquency report for August will be released. Look for a decline in the delinquency rate.

• At 10:30 AM, the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for September will be released. The consensus is for 0.5 for the general business activity index, up from -1.6 in August.

• At 3:00 PM, San Francisco Fed President John Williams (voting member) speaks at The City Club of San Francisco, Jamison Roundtable Luncheon. This speech will be closely watched for any hints of possible "thresholds" with regard to QE3 and the unemployment rate and inflation.

The Asian markets are down tonight, with the Nikkei down 0.3%.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are down almost 2 points, and the DOW futures down 10 points.

Oil prices are mixed with WTI futures up slightly at $92.61 and Brent down at $111.74 per barrel. Both are down sharply from a week ago.

Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Sept 21st
• Schedule for Week of Sept 23rd
• Goldman Estimate: QE3 could be $1.2 to $2.0 Trillion

Four more questions this week for the September economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).