RSS Feed by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2012 09:07:00 PM
Sunday, August 26, 2012
Sunday Night Futures:Isaac, ECB and Fed
Tropical Storm Isaac in the Gulf (soon to be a hurricane). Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and ECB President Mario Draghi speak later this week at the Jackson Hole Symposium. It will be a busy week!
From Reuters: Isaac heads for U.S. Gulf Coast, Landfall likely on anniversary of Hurricane Katrina
Isaac is expected to strengthen to a Category 2 hurricane and hit the Gulf Coast ... on or near the seventh anniversary of Hurricane Katrina - the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC) said in an advisory.It was the storm surge during Katrina that damaged the Gulf Coast refineries - and the NHC doesn't expect Isaac to be as large or powerful as Katrina, but Isaac is still a very dangerous storm.
With the threat to offshore oil infrastructure and Louisiana refineries, U.S. crude oil prices traded up 75 cents to $96.90 a barrel in Asia trading early Monday.
Once ashore, the storm could wreak havoc on low-lying fuel refineries along the Gulf Coast that account for about 40 percent of U.S. refining capacity.
From the WSJ: ECB Weighs Flexible Targets on Bond Yields
[O]fficials are moving in the direction of informal, flexible yield objectives for shorter-maturity bond yields of Spain and other at-risk countries, according to the person familiar with the matter.No denial yet from Germany.
The central bank is unlikely to finalize anything before its Sept. 6 policy meeting, at the earliest. Yet the basic contours are starting to take shape.
The thinking, the person said, is that the ECB would guide investors toward a target, or range, for government bond yields of Spain and others by publicly communicating specifics about the amount of the bond purchases it conducts, as well as the details on the types of bonds it buys.
And from Jon Hilsenrath at the WSJ: Will Fed Act Again? Sizing Up Potential Costs
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers what could be his closing argument in deliberations about launching a new bond-buying program when he speaks Friday at the central bank's Jackson Hole, Wyo., conference.The Asian markets are mixed tonight, with the Nikkei up 0.8% and the Shanghai Composite down 1%.
The argument comes down to weighing costs and benefits.
From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures: the S&P future are up 2, and the DOW futures up 25 points.
Oil prices are moving up again with WTI futures are at $96.88 and Brent is at $114.27 per barrel. Using the calculator at Econbrowser suggests national gasoline prices at about $3.69 per gallon.
Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 24th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 26th
Three more questions for the August economic prediction contest (Note: You can now use Facebook, Twitter, or OpenID to log in).
"Serial Refinancers" and Percent of Refinance Loans with Cash Out
by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2012 04:06:00 PM
From Annamaria Andriotis at the WSJ: The Serial Refinancers
To keep up with falling rates, almost 2.2 million homeowners have refinanced their mortgages at least twice since 2009, according to data compiled for The Wall Street Journal by SMR Research, a mortgage-research firm in Hackettstown, N.J.Refinance activity has picked up again this year, but this is very different from the mortgage equity withdrawal surge during the housing bubble.
From 2006 through 2008, some 3.5 million homeowners refinanced at least twice.
...
The last time homeowners were so eager to refinance, it was a more expensive proposition. At the height of the housing boom, 86% of borrowers who refinanced took out cash and ended up with a higher loan amount, according to Freddie Mac.
Freddie Mac has some great data in their refinance activities reports.
Click on graph for larger image. This graph uses the Freddie Mac data. This year, close to 60% of loans have no change in the loan balance, and another 20%+ were "Cash-in" refinances (with the borrower putting money into the house to obtain the refinance loan). Last year, in Q4, almost half of all loans were "cash-in"!
Here are the definitions from Freddie Mac:
"Higher Loan Amount" refers to loan amounts that were at least 5 percent greater than the amortized unpaid principal balance (UPB) of the original loan. "No Change In Loan Amount" refers to loans on which the principal balance was unchanged during refinance or loans that increased less than 5 percent of the original loan balance due to the inclusion of closing costs for the refinance. "Lower loan amount" refers to loan amounts that were less than the amortized UPB of the original loan. These three columns may not sum to 100% due to rounding.Yesterday:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 24th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 26th
Zillow: House Prices increased 1.2% Year-over-year in July
by Calculated Risk on 8/26/2012 10:18:00 AM
Notes: Every month Zillow uses their data to estimate the Case-Shiller index. On Friday I posted their estimate for the June Case-Shiller Composite 20 index showing a 0.3% year-over-year increase.
Of course Zillow has their own house price index that excludes foreclosure resales and they released their report for July last week and I rarely mention it - so here is their most recent release.
From Zillow: U.S. Home Values Climb for Eighth Consecutive Month; Over 60% of Metros Show Increasing Values
Zillow’s July Real Estate Market Reports ... show that home values increased 0.5 percent to $151,600 from June to July (Figure 1), marking another month of healthy monthly appreciation. Compared to July 2011, home values are up by 1.2 percent (Figure 2), supported in many places by low for-sale inventory. Inventory shortages are being fueled by negative equity and a slowed distribution of REOs. ... On an annual basis, rents across the nation are up by 5.4 percent
Click on graph for larger image. This graph from Zillow shows the national Zillow HPI.
The index was up 0.5% in July, and is up 1.2% over the last year.
The index is off 21.7% from the peak in April 2007. (This excludes foreclosures).
From Zillow:
The Zillow Real Estate Market Reports cover 167 metropolitan areas (metros) of which 102 showed monthly home value appreciation. Among the top 30 metros, 21 experienced monthly home value appreciation and 14 saw annual increases. The largest monthly decline among the top 30 metros took place in St. Louis, where home values fell by 0.4 percent from June to July. Leading the pack on the appreciation side are Phoenix, San Jose and San Francisco, which experienced 2.2, 1.2 and 1.2 percent home value appreciation, respectively
The second graph is also from Zillow. The year-over-year comparison has turned positive this year, and is positive for the first time since the housing bubble burst.Zillow also has data on rents and the rate of foreclosed homes.
Note: At the peak of the bubble, we only had the OFHEO HPI (now FHFA and for GSE loans only), and some median price indexes that are impacted by the mix. Now we have a number of house price indexes released every month: Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, LPS, Zillow, FNC and several others.
Saturday, August 25, 2012
Unofficial Problem Bank list declines to 898 Institutions
by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2012 06:39:00 PM
This is an unofficial list of Problem Banks compiled only from public sources.
Here is the unofficial problem bank list for Aug 24, 2012. (table is sortable by assets, state, etc.)
Changes and comments from surferdude808:
Only one change for the Unofficial Problem Bank List this week as the FDIC held to form and did not release its actions until the last Friday of the month. For next week, that means we will should get the second quarter industry earnings and the Official Problem Bank List on the 28th and FDIC's actions for July on the 31st.Earlier:
The Federal Reserve terminated the action against Valley Bank, Roanoke, VA ($781 million Ticker: VYFC). After removal, the Unofficial Problem Bank List holds 898 institutions with assets of $346.7 billion. A year ago, the list held 988 institutions with assets of $415.9 billion.
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 24th
• Schedule for Week of Aug 26th
Schedule for Week of Aug 26th
by Calculated Risk on 8/25/2012 01:05:00 PM
Earlier:
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 24th
The most anticipated events this coming are the speeches by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (Friday) and ECB President Mario Draghi (Saturday) at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium .
Key economic releases include the Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Wednesday, and July Personal Income and Spending on Thursday.
Note: The FDIC is expected to release the Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile this week.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus is for -6.0 for the general business activity index, up from -13.2 in July.
12:15 PM: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Newark (voting member of FOMC).
9:00 AM: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for June. Although this is the June report, it is really a 3 month average of April, May and June. This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through May 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a no change year-over-year in the Composite 20 prices (NSA) for June. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 0.3% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.9% month-to-month seasonally adjusted. The CoreLogic index increased 1.3% in June (NSA).
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for August. The consensus is for a decrease to 65.0 from 65.9 last month.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for an increase to -10 for this survey from -17 in July (above zero is expansion).
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2012 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2012 (preliminary estimate). This is the second estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.7% annualized in Q2, revised up from 1.5% in the advance release.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.
11:00 AM: New York Fed to Release Q2 2012 Report on Household Debt and Credit.
2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. This will receive extra attention this month as investors look for any sign of a "a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery" that might derail QE3. (quote from the recent FOMC minutes).
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income in July, and for 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. This is the last of the regional surveys for August. The consensus is for an a reading of 5, unchanged from 5 in July (above zero is expansion).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 73.5, down from the preliminary August reading of 73.6, and up from the July reading of 72.3.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in orders.
10:00 AM, Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Monetary Policy Since the Crisis", At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming
