by Bill McBride on 8/25/2012 01:05:00 PM
Saturday, August 25, 2012
• Summary for Week Ending Aug 24th
The most anticipated events this coming are the speeches by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke (Friday) and ECB President Mario Draghi (Saturday) at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium .
Key economic releases include the Case-Shiller house price index on Tuesday, the second estimate of Q2 GDP on Wednesday, and July Personal Income and Spending on Thursday.
Note: The FDIC is expected to release the Q2 Quarterly Banking Profile this week.
10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey for August. The consensus is for -6.0 for the general business activity index, up from -13.2 in July.
12:15 PM: Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy in Newark (voting member of FOMC).
This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through May 2012 (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The consensus is for a no change year-over-year in the Composite 20 prices (NSA) for June. The Zillow forecast is for the Composite 20 to increase 0.3% year-over-year, and for prices to increase 0.9% month-to-month seasonally adjusted. The CoreLogic index increased 1.3% in June (NSA).
10:00 AM: Conference Board's consumer confidence index for August. The consensus is for a decrease to 65.0 from 65.9 last month.
10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for August. The consensus is for an increase to -10 for this survey from -17 in July (above zero is expansion).
8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2012 (second estimate); Corporate Profits, 2nd quarter 2012 (preliminary estimate). This is the second estimate from the BEA. The consensus is that real GDP increased 1.7% annualized in Q2, revised up from 1.5% in the advance release.
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is for a 1.0% increase in the index.
11:00 AM: New York Fed to Release Q2 2012 Report on Household Debt and Credit.
2:00 PM: Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts. This will receive extra attention this month as investors look for any sign of a "a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery" that might derail QE3. (quote from the recent FOMC minutes).
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for July. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in personal income in July, and for 0.4% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.1%.
11:00 AM: Kansas City Fed regional Manufacturing Survey for August. This is the last of the regional surveys for August. The consensus is for an a reading of 5, unchanged from 5 in July (above zero is expansion).
9:55 AM: Reuter's/University of Michigan's Consumer sentiment index (final for August). The consensus is for a reading of 73.5, down from the preliminary August reading of 73.6, and up from the July reading of 72.3.
10:00 AM: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders (Factory Orders) for July. The consensus is for a 0.9% increase in orders.
10:00 AM, Speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, "Monetary Policy Since the Crisis", At the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming