Tuesday, August 07, 2012

CoreLogic: House Price Index increases in June, Up 2.5% Year-over-year

by Bill McBride on 8/07/2012 08:52:00 AM

Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June. The Case-Shiller index released last week was for May. Case-Shiller is currently the most followed house price index, however CoreLogic is used by the Federal Reserve and is followed by many analysts. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA).

From CoreLogic: CoreLogic® June Home Price Index Rises 2.5 Percent—Representing Fourth Consecutive Year-Over-Year Increase

Home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased on a year-over-year basis by 2.5 percent in June 2012 compared to June 2011. On a month-over-month basis, including distressed sales, home prices increased by 1.3 percent in June 2012 compared to May 2012. The June 2012 figures mark the fourth consecutive increase in home prices nationally on both a year-over-year and month-over-month basis.

Excluding distressed sales, home prices nationwide increased on a year-over-year basis by 3.2 percent in June 2012 compared to June 2011. On a month-over-month basis excluding distressed sales, home prices increased 2.0 percent in June 2012 compared to May 2012, the fifth consecutive month-over-month increase. Distressed sales include short sales and real estate owned (REO) transactions.

The CoreLogic Pending HPI indicates that July home prices, including distressed sales, will rise by at least 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis from June 2012 and by 2.0 percent on a year-over-year basis from July 2011.

“Home prices are responding positively to reductions in both visible and shadow inventory over the past year,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic. “This trend is a bright spot because the decline in shadow inventory translates to fewer distressed sales, which helps sustain price appreciation.”
CoreLogic House Price Index Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the national CoreLogic HPI data since 1976. January 2000 = 100.

The index was up 1.3% in May, and is up 2.5% over the last year.

The index is off 29% from the peak - and is up 7% from the post-bubble low set in February (the index is NSA, so some of the increase is seasonal).

CoreLogic YoY House Price IndexThe second graph is from CoreLogic. The year-over-year comparison has turned positive.

This is the fourth consecutive month with a year-over-year increase, and excluding the tax credit bump, these are the first year-over-year increases since 2006.

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