Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Case Shiller: House Prices increased 2.2% in May

by Bill McBride on 7/31/2012 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for May (a 3 month average of March, April and May).

This release includes prices for 20 individual cities and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data.

From S&P: Home Prices Continue to Rise in May 2012 According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through May 2012, released today by S&P Dow Jones Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, showed that average home prices increased by 2.2% in May over April for both the 10- and 20-City Composites.

With May’s data, we found that home prices fell annually by 1.0% for the 10-City Composite and by 0.7% for the 20-City Composite versus May 2011. Both Composites and 17 of the 20 MSAs saw increases in annual returns in May compared to April. ... All 20 cities and both Composites posted positive monthly returns.
...
“With May’s data, we saw a continuing trend of rising home prices for the spring,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “On a monthly basis, all 20 cities and both Composites posted positive returns and 17 of those cities saw those rates of change increase compared to what was observed for April. Seventeen of the 20 cities and both Composites also saw improved annual rates of return. We have observed two consecutive months of increasing home prices and overall improvements in monthly and annual returns; however, we need to remember that spring and early summer are seasonally strong buying months so this trend must continue throughout the summer and into the fall.

“The 10- and 20-City Composites were each up 2.2% for the month and recorded respective annual rates of decline of 1.0% and 0.7%, compared to May 2011. While still negative, these annual changes are the best we’ve since in at least 18 months."
Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 32.6% from the peak, and up 0.9% in May (SA). The Composite 10 is up from the post bubble low set in March, Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

The Composite 20 index is off 32.3% from the peak, and up 0.9% (SA) in May. The Composite 20 is also up from the post-bubble low set in March (NSA).

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 1.0% compared to May 2011.

The Composite 20 SA is down 0.7% compared to May 2011. This was a smaller year-over-year decline for both indexes than in April, and the smallest year-over-year decline since 2010 (when the tax credit boosted prices temporarily).

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices increased (SA) in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April seasonally adjusted (all 20 cities increased NSA). Prices in Las Vegas are off 60.4% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 5.8% from the peak. Note that the red column (cumulative decline through May 2012) is above previous declines for most cities.

This was better than the consensus forecast and it is now possible that prices will turn positive year-over-year in June. I'll have more on prices later.

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