by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2011 08:30:00 AM

The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for August:

Personal income decreased $7.3 billion, or 0.1 percent ... in August ... Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $22.7 billion, or 0.2 percent.
...
Real PCE -- PCE adjusted to remove price changes -- decreased less than 0.1 percent in August, in contrast to an increase of 0.4 percent in July. ... The price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August,compared with an increase of 0.4 percent in July. The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent

The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through August (2005 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

PCE increased 0.2 in August, and real PCE decreased slightly as the price index for PCE increased 0.2 percent in August.

Note: The PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 0.1 percent.

The personal saving rate was at 4.5% in August.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $519.3 billion in August, compared with $550.5 billion in July. Personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income was 4.5 percent in August, compared with 4.7 percent in July.

This graph shows the saving rate starting in 1959 (using a three month trailing average for smoothing) through the August Personal Income report.

Using the two month method to estimate Q3 PCE gives a 1.1% annualized rate (another weak quarter), however it appears PCE increased in September (auto sales are up) and June was especially weak in Q2 - so real PCE growth will probably be in the 1.5% range in Q3 (still weak).

by Calculated Risk on 9/30/2011 12:29:00 AM

• A story about the guy that checks the house after foreclosure from the NY Times: The Closer

When a lender forecloses on a property, one of the first things he does is send somebody out to see if there is a house still standing and whether there’s anybody living there. That’s my job. Sometimes the houses are crack dens or meth labs, sometimes the sites of cock- or dog-fighting operations, sometimes the backyard is filled with pot. And sometimes the house is a waterfront mansion in a gated golf community worth well over seven figures. Variety is the rule.

• From Bloomberg: One in Five Modified Loans Default Again, U.S. Comptroller Says (ht Mike in Long Island)

One in five homeowners whose mortgages were modified under a program aimed at reducing foreclosures defaulted again within a year after their payments were cut, the U.S. Comptroller of the Currency reported today.

• From Catherine Rampell at Economix: Job Losses Across the Developed World (ht Picosec)

Across the developed world, the biggest job losses in the 2008-9 downturn were in mining, manufacturing and utilities, according to new data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Check out the chart. Construction job losses in the U.S. were small compared to Spain, Ireland and Portugal.

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2011 05:24:00 PM

Probably deserves a mention ... from Freddie Mac: Fixed-Rate Mortgages Lowest on Record

Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), coming on the heels of the Federal Reserve's recent announcements. The conventional 30-year fixed averaged an all-time record low at 4.01 percent; likewise the 15-year fixed averaged an all-time record low at 3.28 percent for the week.
...
"Fixed mortgage rates fell to all-time record lows this week following the Federal Reserve's announcement of its Maturity Extension Program and additional purchases of mortgage-backed securities. Interest rates for ARMs, however, were nearly unchanged as the Federal Reserve plans to sell $400 billion in short-term Treasury securities, which serve as benchmarks for many ARMs." [said Frank Nothaft, vice president and chief economist, Freddie Mac]

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline sharply to 391,000
• Misc: GDP revised up, Employment to be revised up, Germany approves EFSF changes, Pending Home sales decline
• Kansas City Manufacturing Survey: Manufacturing activity expands "modestly" in September
• Employment: Comment on preliminary annual benchmark revision

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2011 01:45:00 PM

This morning the BLS released the preliminary annual benchmark revision of +192,000 payroll jobs. The final revision will be published next February when the January 2012 employment report is released February 3, 2012. Usually the preliminary estimate is pretty close to the final benchmark estimate.

The annual revision is benchmarked to state tax records. From the BLS:

Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by unemployment insurance (UI). The time required to complete the revision process—from the full collection of the UI population data to publication of the revised industry estimates—is about 10 months. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels ...

Using the preliminary benchmark estimate, this means that payroll employment in March 2011 was 192,000 higher than originally estimated. In February 2012, the payroll numbers will be revised up to reflect this estimate. The number is then "wedged back" to the previous revision (March 2010).

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the impact of the preliminary benchmark revision on job losses in percentage terms from the start of the employment recession.

The red line on the graph is the current estimate, and the dotted line shows the impact of estimated coming benchmark revision. This puts the current payroll employment about 6.7 million jobs below the pre-recession peak in December 2007. Still very ugly.

For details on the benchmark revision process, see from the BLS: Benchmark Article and annual benchmark revision for the new preliminary estimate.

The following table shows the benchmark revisions since 1979.

Year	Percent benchmark revision	Benchmark revision (in thousands)
1979	0.5	447
1980	-0.1	-63
1981	-0.4	-349
1982	-0.1	-113
1983	*	36
1984	0.4	353
1985	*	-3
1986	-0.5	-467
1987	*	-35
1988	-0.3	-326
1989	*	47
1990	-0.2	-229
1991	-0.6	-640
1992	-0.1	-59
1993	0.2	263
1994	0.7	747
1995	0.5	542
1996	*	57
1997	0.4	431
1998	*	44
1999	0.2	258
2000	0.4	468
2001	-0.1	-123
2002	-0.2	-313
2003	-0.2	-122
2004	0.2	203
2005	-0.1	-158
2006	0.6	752
2007	-0.2	-293
2008	-0.1	-89
2009	-0.7	-902
2010	-0.3	-378
2011	0.1	192 (estimate)
* less than 0.05%

by Calculated Risk on 9/29/2011 11:00:00 AM

This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for September. The regional surveys provide a hint about the ISM manufacturing index - and the regional surveys were weak in September, but not as weak as in August.

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Manufacturing Activity Edged Higher

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher in September. Expectations moderated slightly, but producers on net still anticipated increased activity over the next six months. Price indexes moved up modestly, with slightly more producers planning to raise selling prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in September, up from 3 in August and 3 in July ... The employment index increased for the second straight month, but the new orders for exports index fell slightly after rising last month.

“Factory activity in our region continues to grow modestly, and firms generally expect this trend to continue,” said Wilkerson. “Price indexes also edged higher this month after generally decelerating earlier in the summer.”

Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).

The ISM index for September will be released Monday, Oct 3rd and this suggests another weak reading in September.

Earlier:
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline sharply to 391,000
• Misc: GDP revised up, Employment to be revised up, Germany approves EFSF changes, Pending Home sales decline