Thursday, September 29, 2011

Kansas City Manufacturing Survey: Manufacturing activity expands "modestly" in September

by Bill McBride on 9/29/2011 11:00:00 AM

This is the last of the regional Fed surveys for September. The regional surveys provide a hint about the ISM manufacturing index - and the regional surveys were weak in September, but not as weak as in August.

From the Kansas City Fed: Growth in Manufacturing Activity Edged Higher

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity edged higher in September. Expectations moderated slightly, but producers on net still anticipated increased activity over the next six months. Price indexes moved up modestly, with slightly more producers planning to raise selling prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 6 in September, up from 3 in August and 3 in July ... The employment index increased for the second straight month, but the new orders for exports index fell slightly after rising last month.

Factory activity in our region continues to grow modestly, and firms generally expect this trend to continue,” said Wilkerson. “Price indexes also edged higher this month after generally decelerating earlier in the summer.”
Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index:

Fed Manufacturing Surveys and ISM PMI Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (dashed green, through September), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through September) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through August (right axis).

The ISM index for September will be released Monday, Oct 3rd and this suggests another weak reading in September.

Earlier:
Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline sharply to 391,000
Misc: GDP revised up, Employment to be revised up, Germany approves EFSF changes, Pending Home sales decline