by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2011 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (actually a 3 month average of May, June and July).

This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).

Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data. The composite indexes were up about 0.9% in July (from June) Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), but flat Seasonally Adjusted (SA).

From S&P: Home Prices Continue to Show Seasonal Strength According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

Data through June 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed a fourth consecutive month of increases for the 10- and 20-City Composites, with both up 0.9% in July over June. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Las Vegas and Phoenix were down over the month and Denver was unchanged.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 32% from the peak, and down slightly in July (SA). The Composite 10 is 1.4% above the June 2009 post-bubble bottom (Seasonally adjusted).

The Composite 20 index is off 31.8% from the peak, and up slightly in July (SA). The Composite 20 is slightly above the March 2011 post-bubble bottom seasonally adjusted.

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 SA is down 3.8% compared to July 2010.

The Composite 20 SA is down 4.2% compared to July 2010.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices increased (SA) in 8 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in July seasonally adjusted. Prices in Las Vegas are off 59.2% from the peak, and prices in Dallas only off 9.5% from the peak.

As S&P noted, prices increased in 17 of 20 cities not seasonally adjusted (NSA). However seasonally adjusted, prices only increased in 9 cities.

Most of this prices increase was mostly seasonal. As S&P's David Blitzer said: "This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected ... ". The question is what happens later this year. I'll have more later ...

by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2011 08:41:00 AM

From the NY Times: German Leader Reaffirms Backing for Greece

Promising that Athens would live up to its commitments, the Greek prime minister urged Europe to pull together to take the steps needed to head off a potentially disastrous escalation in the sovereign debt crisis.

In a speech to the same group of German business leaders, Chancellor Angela Merkel said Germany would provide all the help it could to stabilize Greece.
...
Mrs. Merkel urged lawmakers to back the bill “in a spirit of friendship, a spirit of partnership, not in a spirit of imposing something.”

“If Europe isn’t doing well, then over the medium term Germany won’t do well,” she said.

And from the Financial Times: Rolling blog: the eurozone crisis

Our Athens reporter, Dimitris Kontogiannis, has set out the main details of the property tax ...
• The new tax will apply, with a few exceptions, to all electricity-powered buildings
• Those who refuse to pay will have their electricity cut off...
• The government estimates the new tax could raise €2bn-€2.5bn a year...

It sounds like the property tax will pass - and that the German parliament will approve the changes to the EFSF on Thursday.

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2011 10:21:00 PM

To help keep track ...
• There is a vote on Tuesday in Greece concerning the new property tax around 12 PM ET (there will be protests too). I think this also includes some cuts in public sector too.

• Prime Minister George Papandreou will be in Germany on Tuesday for a meeting with Chancellor Angela Merkel.

• The "troika" inspectors (EU-IMF-ECB) will not return until the new legislation is passed.

• The EU Finance Ministers meet on Monday, October 3rd, and there is very little time for the inspectors to complete their work and still allow the Finance Ministers to vote on the release of the next loan installment. Greece needs the disbursement by mid-October to meet their obligations through the end of the year.

• On Thursday, the German Parliament will vote on increasing the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) according to the agreement reached on July 21st.

On August Home Sales:
• New Home Sales decline slightly in August
• Last week: Existing Home Sales in August: 5.0 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply
• Graph Galleries: New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2011 07:35:00 PM

Alejandro Lazo at the LA Times wrote today: New home sales stuck at the bottom in August

"This year is shaping up to be the worst year on record for new home sales," [Patrick Newport, U.S. economist with IHS Global Insight] wrote in a note.

The Census Bureau started tracking New Home sales in 1963, and the record low was 412,000 in 1982 - until that record was broken in 2009 - and then again in 2010 - and it looks another new record in 2011.

Here is a table of the last ten years - remember that sales in 2009 and 2010 were boosted by the tax credit.

New Home Sales
Year	Total	Total through August
2000	877	608
2001	908	644
2002	973	670
2003	1,086	759
2004	1,203	841
2005	1,283	906
2006	1,051	756
2007	776	577
2008	485	365
2009	375	261
2010	323	231
2011	3031	211
1Current 2011 Pace

On August Home Sales:
• New Home Sales decline slightly in August
• Last week: Existing Home Sales in August: 5.0 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply
• Graph Galleries: New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales

by Calculated Risk on 9/26/2011 03:55:00 PM

From CNBC: Officials Working on a Sovereign Debt TARP for Europe?

European officials are working on a detailed plan aimed at shoring up European bank stability, according to an official who spoke with CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

The plan appears to have a lot of moving parts. It would involve money from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a bailout vehicle created in 2010 to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, to capitalize a special purpose vehicle that would be created by the European Investment Bank, a bank owned by the member states of the European Union.

More details at the article.

The Greek 2 year yield was up to 71%. The Greek 1 year yield is at 138%.

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 18.2% and the Irish 2 year yield was down to 8.8%.

The Italian 10 year yield was up slightly to 5.6%.

On August Home Sales:
• New Home Sales decline slightly in August
• Last week: Existing Home Sales in August: 5.0 million SAAR, 8.5 months of supply
• Graph Galleries: New Home Sales and Existing Home Sales