by Calculated Risk on 9/27/2011 09:00:00 AM
Tuesday, September 27, 2011
Case Shiller: Home Prices increased Seasonally in July
S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July (actually a 3 month average of May, June and July).
This includes prices for 20 individual cities and and two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities).
Note: Case-Shiller reports NSA, I use the SA data. The composite indexes were up about 0.9% in July (from June) Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), but flat Seasonally Adjusted (SA).
From S&P: Home Prices Continue to Show Seasonal Strength According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Data through June 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices ... showed a fourth consecutive month of increases for the 10- and 20-City Composites, with both up 0.9% in July over June. Seventeen of the 20 MSAs and both Composites posted positive monthly increases; Las Vegas and Phoenix were down over the month and Denver was unchanged.
![Case-Shiller House Prices Indices](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjIBAZY1M_QkUgfFcukArhkjt6NxRRlXI4TQdXHBG8H2tdTXi1P8S0Un3qZen6HPVx6LK5iACAiqlzvd0u3ko13h64VOqiUx7xmBuXANj3LIQDDE2TXBqDP6eajdErGyYkcA4Ny/s320/CSJuly2011.jpg)
The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).
The Composite 10 index is off 32% from the peak, and down slightly in July (SA). The Composite 10 is 1.4% above the June 2009 post-bubble bottom (Seasonally adjusted).
The Composite 20 index is off 31.8% from the peak, and up slightly in July (SA). The Composite 20 is slightly above the March 2011 post-bubble bottom seasonally adjusted.
![Case-Shiller House Prices Indices](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFYWagMvKbaSa_RF2zLyw1mzplKzZbYAF-Gir-ASs8V80NGfeZcykMDSZd8MwLnHiUR5c1HID3dnStxmvyAgEDCtwH6T-OHzi3LTM8AQQ3jQkRrUOJP5EaIkpC7V_onpc422L9/s320/CSYoYJuly2011.jpg)
The Composite 10 SA is down 3.8% compared to July 2010.
The Composite 20 SA is down 4.2% compared to July 2010.
The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.
![Case-Shiller Price Declines](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhF-1pfiP6xWlEuTZ4m2kCvZIWdAIX72-ET2NzdsEsrDVHxpTsH8PSHeCaL2PbIGlZSmMKntepSyUTOFOXAFvocgE0URMQZxgxToKYtdnKUnTeH1HG66dCQ-SbB0KtDweih8lva/s320/CSCitiesJuly2011.jpg)
As S&P noted, prices increased in 17 of 20 cities not seasonally adjusted (NSA). However seasonally adjusted, prices only increased in 9 cities.
Most of this prices increase was mostly seasonal. As S&P's David Blitzer said: "This is still a seasonal period of stronger demand for houses, so monthly price increases are expected ... ". The question is what happens later this year. I'll have more later ...