by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2011 02:25:00 PM

The Association of American Railroads (AAR) reports carload traffic in Auguest 2011 decreased 0.3 percent compared with the same month last year, and intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers) increased 0.4 percent compared with August 2010. On a seasonally adjusted basis, carloads in August 2011 were flat compared to July 2011; intermodal in August 2011 was up 0.3% from July 2011.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, total U.S. freight rail carloads were down 0.3% in August 2011 from August 2010. Railroads originated 1,482,570 carloads in August 2011, down from 1,486,378 in August 2010. ... As the chart [below] shows, for the past five months rail carload traffic has been joined at the hip with the same month in 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows U.S. average weekly rail carloads (NSA).

Rail carload traffic collapsed in November 2008, and now, over 2 years into the recovery, carload traffic is only about half way back.

"Excluding coal, U.S. rail carloads in August 2011 were up 1.0% over August 2010. Excluding coal and grain, U.S. rail carloads in August 2011 were up 3.7% over August 2010"

The second graph is for intermodal traffic (using intermodal or shipping containers):

Intermodal continued its upward march in August. U.S. railroads originated 1,179,838 trailers and containers in August 2011, an average of 235,968 units per week. That’s the highest weekly average for any month since October 2007. Less impressive is the fact that August 2011 was up just 0.4% (4,196 units) over August 2010.
excerpts with permission

August was another soft month for rail traffic.

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2011 11:17:00 AM

Note: This is one of the industry specific measures that I follow. I only post this every few weeks or so.

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 3 September

In year-over-year comparisons for the week, occupancy rose 6.6 percent to 61.1 percent, average daily rate increased 4.8 percent to US$99.04, and revenue per available room finished the week up 11.6 percent to US$60.53.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average for the occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The summer leisure travel season has ended, and the 4-week average of the occupancy rate is starting to decrease seasonally. For the first time since early 2008, the 4 week average of the hotel occupancy rate is back to the pre-recession median level.

Even though the occupancy rate has recovered, ADR is still lower than before the recession.

The second graph shows the 4-week average of the occupancy rate as a percent of the median since 2000. Note: Since this is a percent of the median, the number can be above 100%.

This shows the decline in the occupancy rate during and following the 2001 recession. The sharp decline in 2001 was related to 9/11, and the sharp increase towards the end of 2005 was due to Hurricane Katrina.

The occupancy rate really fell off a cliff in 2008, and has slowly recovered back to the median.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2011 08:38:00 AM

From Dow Jones: Greek Debt Rollover Process 'Satisfactory'

A debt rollover plan ... is making "satisfactory progress," a Greek government official said Friday as a deadline for euro-zone banks and funds to express interest expired.

"Progress is satisfactory, things are advancing in a positive manner," the official told AFP, declining to give a number of participants in the scheme.

There is no clear "make or break" date for Greece but here are a few key dates via the WSJ: September Roadmap for the Euro Crisis.

Today:
• G-7 finance ministers meet in Marseilles.

• Deadline for non-binding commitments from private-sector creditors to participate in Greece’s proposed bond-exchange program

Saturday, Sept 10th:
• Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou delivers his annual economic policy speech.

Wednesday, Sept 14th
• Greece expected to resume talks with European Commission, IMF and ECB officials on fiscal, economic reforms

The Greek 2 year yield is at 55.3%.

The Portuguese 2 year yield is up to 15.2% (after falling below 12% in August). Also the Irish 2 year yield is at 9.4% (below 8% in August).

Here are the links for bond yields for several countries (source: Bloomberg):

Greece	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Portugal	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Ireland	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Spain	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Italy	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Belgium	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
France	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year
Germany	2 Year	5 Year	10 Year

by Calculated Risk on 9/09/2011 12:14:00 AM

Here is the fact sheet for The American Jobs Act

Some of the major proposals (total is around $450 billion):

1) Payroll tax cuts (approx $240 billion):

• Cutting payroll taxes in half for 160 million workers next year: The President’s plan will expand the payroll tax cut passed last year to cut workers payroll taxes in half in 2012 ...

• Cutting the payroll tax in half for 98 percent of businesses: The President’s plan will cut in half the taxes paid by businesses on their first $5 million in payroll ...

2) Schools and teachers / aid to states (approx $60 billion):

• Preventing up to 280,000 teacher layoffs, while keeping cops and firefighters on the job.

• Modernizing at least 35,000 public schools across the country,supporting new science labs, Internet-ready classrooms and renovations at schools across the country, in rural and urban areas.

3) Other infrastructure ($75 billion)

4) Extend unemployment insurance benefits ($49 billion).

5) Helping More Americans Refinance Mortgages (there are no details yet). "The President has instructed his economic team to work with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, their regulator the FHFA, major lenders and industry leaders to remove the barriers that exist in the current refinancing program (HARP) to help more borrowers benefit from today’s historically low interest rates."

More from Ezra Klein: What’s in the president’s jobs plan, and what comes next

by Calculated Risk on 9/08/2011 07:55:00 PM

From economist Tom Lawler: While normally I don’t put out an “early read” on existing home sales this early – mainly because not enough realtor associations/boards/MLS have released their stats to get a “good” national read – the reports that have come in so far suggest to me that existing home sales in August rebounded from July on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Last August the NAR estimated that existing home sales ran at a SAAR of 4.24 million. This August, of course, there was one more business day than last August, and this month’s seasonal factor will probably be 1.5%-2.0% higher than last August’s. The NAR estimated that July existing home sales – which came in south of “consensus,” and below what past pending home sales indices would have suggested (though it was right on top of my regional tracking) – ran at a SAAR of 4.67 million. A “flat” reading for seasonally adjusted existing home sales for August, then, would imply a YOY gain in NSA sales in the 11.8% to 12.3% range.

Incoming data, in my view, suggest a national YOY gain well above that – probably in the 16.8% range or so, which would imply that the NAR’s existing home sales estimate for August will probably come in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of around 4.87 million, a gain from July of about 4.3%, and I think there may be more upside than downside risk to that forecast.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

Such an increase, by the way, is not broadly inconsistent with the latest pending home sales index, which showed a mild decline in July. After all, the gains in previous months didn’t show up in similar gains in closed sales, suggesting either (a) increased cancellations; (b) increased delays from contract to closing; or (c) a combination of both. Right now, the correct answer appears to be “c.” (August reflects Lawler forecast).