by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 02:01:00 PM

Import traffic declined at the LA area ports in June. The following graphs are for inbound and outbound traffic at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in TEUs (TEUs: 20-foot equivalent units or 20-foot-long cargo container).

Although containers tell us nothing about value, container traffic does give us an idea of the volume of goods being exported and imported - and possible hints about the trade report for June. LA area ports handle about 40% of the nation's container port traffic.

To remove the strong seasonal component for inbound traffic, the first graph shows the rolling 12 month average.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

On a rolling 12 month basis, inbound traffic is down 0.3% from May, and outbound traffic is up 0.5%.

The 2nd graph is the monthly data (with a strong seasonal pattern for imports).

For the month of June, loaded inbound traffic was down 5% compared to June 2010, and loaded outbound traffic was up 7% compared to June 2010.

Exports have been increasing, although bouncing around month-to-month. Exports are up from last year, but still below the peak in 2008.

Imports were down from last year, and are below the levels of June in 2005 through 2008 too.

In May, LA port traffic suggested in increase in trade with China (and other Asians countries), and this month the data suggests a decline in imports with Asian countries. Combined with a decline in oil prices, I expect the trade deficit to decline sharply in June.

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 12:27:00 PM

Note: Unless there is a dramatic change, I'm only going to post the hotel occupancy numbers once every few weeks.

From HotelNewsNow.com: LA tops holiday week hotel performance gains

Overall, the U.S. hotel industry’s occupancy rose 2% to 63.8%, ADR increased 3.4% to US$98.40, and RevPAR finished the week up 5.4% to US$62.74.

Note: ADR: Average Daily Rate, RevPAR: Revenue per Available Room.

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using a four week average for the occupancy rate.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The summer leisure travel season has now started, and the occupancy rate will increase over the next couple of months. Right now the occupancy rate is tracking 2008 - and well above 2009 - but still below the "normal" level.

A reminder: the occupancy rate started to fall off in the summer of 2008, and really fell off a cliff in the fall of 2008 ... so I expect the occupancy rate in 2011 to stay mostly above 2008 for the rest of the year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

Earlier today ...
• Retail Sales increased 0.1% in June
• Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 405,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 09:10:00 AM

On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.1% from May to June (seasonally adjusted, after revisions), and sales were up 8.1% from June 2010. From the Census Bureau report:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for June, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $387.8 billion, an increase of 0.1 percent (±0.5%) from the previous month, and 8.1 percent (±0.7%) above June 2010.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

Retail sales have been mostly moving sidways since March.

Retail sales are up 16.6% from the bottom, and now 2.5% above the pre-recession peak.

The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993.

Retail sales ex-gasoline increased by 6.4% on a YoY basis (8.1% for all retail sales).

This was about at expectations for no change in retail sales. Retail sales ex-autos were unchanged, and gas station sales declined 1.3% last month as prices fell. Another weak retail sales report ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

Special Factor: Minnesota has indicated that approximately 11,500 of their reported initial claims are a result of state employees filing due to the state government shutdown.

In the week ending July 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 405,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 427,000. The 4-week moving average was 423,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 427,000.

This is the 14th straight week with initial claims above 400,000, and the 4-week average is at about the same the level as in January.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims for the last 40 years.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased slightly this week to 423,250.

This is just one week, and this series is very volatile (that is why most people follow the 4-week average). Also last week was revised up significantly. Still, the decline to 405,000 is a positive ...

by Calculated Risk on 7/13/2011 09:05:00 PM

The Euro zone summit meeting originally planned for Friday has apparently been delayed - probably until next week or until an agreement can be announced.

Meanwhile the bank stress test results will be released on Friday, and there is already disagreement about the results.

• From Reuters: Euro zone leaders summit on Greece seen next week-diplomats

Leaders of countries in the euro zone are likely to meet next week to discuss a second aid package for Greece as well as private-sector involvement in reducing the country's debt burden, EU diplomats said on Wednesday.

• From the Irish Times: Europe must be decisive on euro crisis, says Kenny

EUROPE HAS to respond “comprehensively and decisively’’ to the economic crisis, Taoiseach Enda Kenny told the Dáil. “Ireland will contribute to that,’’ he said.

Mr Kenny said there was no point in having a EU Council meeting tomorrow unless there was a decision, or set of decisions, on the European situation.

• From Bloomberg: Germany’s Helaba Snubs EU Stress-Test Regulator in Run Up to Publication

Germany’s Landesbank Hessen- Thueringen snubbed the European Union’s bank stress tests two days before the publication of results, refusing to give the European Banking Authority permission to publish all of its data.

The bank, known as Helaba, disputes the EBA’s measurements of Core Tier 1 capital, the factor by which banks are said to have passed or failed the tests, because they don’t include some instruments allowed by German regulators. The lender said it passed the exams with a capital ratio of 6.8 percent, counting contractual changes around state funds of 1.92 billion euros ($2.71 billion), not included in the EBA results.

• From the Irish Times: Irish bond yields soar to record highs on 'junk' status