by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

Special Factor: Minnesota has indicated that approximately 11,500 of their reported initial claims are a result of state employees filing due to the state government shutdown.

In the week ending July 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 405,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 427,000. The 4-week moving average was 423,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 427,000.

This is the 14th straight week with initial claims above 400,000, and the 4-week average is at about the same the level as in January.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims for the last 40 years.

Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased slightly this week to 423,250.

This is just one week, and this series is very volatile (that is why most people follow the 4-week average). Also last week was revised up significantly. Still, the decline to 405,000 is a positive ...