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Thursday, July 14, 2011

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decline to 405,000

by Calculated Risk on 7/14/2011 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports:

Special Factor: Minnesota has indicated that approximately 11,500 of their reported initial claims are a result of state employees filing due to the state government shutdown.

In the week ending July 9, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 405,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 427,000. The 4-week moving average was 423,250, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week's revised average of 427,000.
This is the 14th straight week with initial claims above 400,000, and the 4-week average is at about the same the level as in January.

The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims for the last 40 years.

Weekly Unemployment Claims Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased slightly this week to 423,250.

This is just one week, and this series is very volatile (that is why most people follow the 4-week average). Also last week was revised up significantly. Still, the decline to 405,000 is a positive ...