by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2010 04:00:00 PM

Here is a graph from the Atlanta Fed weekly Financial Highlights released today (graph as of June 23rd):

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

From the Atlanta Fed:

Greek bond spreads (over German bonds) have risen recently, near the highs seen before the European policy package was announced in early May.

Other euro zone countries’ bond spreads are also elevated during the same period.

Since tightening in early May, the 10-year Greece-to-German bond spread has risen to nearly 300 basis points (bps) (from 4.38% to 7.39%) through June 22. Other European peripherals’ spreads are elevated, with Portugal up 138 bps over the period, Ireland up 111 bps, and Spain 86 bps higher.

Note: The Atlanta Fed data is one day old. Nemo has links to the current data on the sidebar of his site.

The spreads have widened further today: Greece is up sharply to 781 bps today.

And a market update from Doug Short of dshort.com (financial planner).

Click on graph for interactive version in new window.

The graph has tabs to look at the different bear markets - "now" shows the current market - and there is also a tab for the "four bears".

And here is the quote of the day from BofA (via Bloomberg, ht Bill):

"Given the depth of the nation’s recessionary impacts on homeowners, a considerable number of customers will transition from homeownership over the next two years."
Barbara Desoer, president of Bank of America’s home-loan and insurance unit, said in testimony prepared for a congressional hearing June 24, 2010

"Transition from homeownership ..." Ouch.

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2010 02:43:00 PM

From Bloomberg: Lennar Home Sales Down as Much as 25% in June as Tax Credit Ends, CEO Says (ht Brian)

Lennar Corp.’s home sales are down 20 percent to 25 percent this month compared with a year earlier ... Chief Executive Officer Stuart Miller said.

“The entire market knew there’d be a slowdown as we came off the tax credit,” Miller said on a conference call with investors today. “It’s just that the reality of it doesn’t feel good.”

In June 2009, new home sales were at a 396K seasonally adjusted annual rate. This is just one home builder, but a 20% to 25% decline would put sales in June at about the record low level of May. This is almost certain to the worst June sales rate since the Census Bureau started keeping records in 1963.

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2010 01:12:00 PM

From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US results for week ending 19 June

In year-over-year measurements, the industry’s occupancy last week increased 5.8 percent to 66.7 percent. Average daily rate rose 1.1 percent to US$98.03—the third time in four weeks that the measurement has risen. Revenue per available room rose 7.0 percent to US$65.36.

The following graph shows the four week moving average for the occupancy rate by week for 2008, 2009 and 2010 (and a median for 2000 through 2007).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Notes: the scale doesn't start at zero to better show the change.

On a 4-week basis, occupancy is up 8.1% compared to last year (the worst year since the Great Depression) and still almost 7% below normal. About half way back!

Last year leisure travel (summer) held up better than business travel, now it appears business travel is recovering - and we will soon see if leisure travel will also pick up this year.

Data Source: Smith Travel Research, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2010 10:54:00 AM

From Reuters: Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level on Record

Interest rates on U.S. 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the most widely used loan, averaged 4.69 percent for the week ended June 24, the lowest since Freddie Mac started the survey in April 1971.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 30 year fixed rate mortgage interest rate, and the Ten year Treasury yield since 2002. The 30 year mortgage rate is now at a series low (started in 1971), although the spread between the mortgage rate and the treasury yield has widened about 30 bps recently.

The decline in mortgage rates is related to the weak economy and falling treasury yields.

by Calculated Risk on 6/24/2010 08:30:00 AM

The DOL reports on weekly unemployment insurance claims:

In the week ending June 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 457,000, a decrease of 19,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 476,000. The 4-week moving average was 462,750, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 464,250.
...
The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending June 12 was 4,548,000, a decrease of 45,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,593,000.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since January 2000.

The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased this week by 1,500 to 462,750.

The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average.

Initial weekly claims have been at about the same level since December 2009. The current level of 457,000 (and 4-week average of 462,750) is still high, and suggests ongoing weakness in the labor market.