by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2009 04:34:00 PM

From CNBC: After Record Lows, Mortgage Rates Headed Up in 2010

"If you told me by the end of 2010 a 30-year rate was at 6 percent, that sounds about right," says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's. "I don't think there's any question rates are headed up."

Rates are definitely headed up right now, and with the Fed MBS purchase program scheduled to end in about three months, mortgage rates will probably increase some more. But I think the following estimate is way too high:

"The ending of the Fed program will definitely effect rates," says Mark Goldman, professor of real estate at San Diego State University. "So far, the Fed has not expressed interest in keeping the program going. That could raise rates by some 150-200 basis points."

As I've noted before, I think the increase in rates will be in the 35-50 bps range relative to the 10 year Treasury yield when the Fed MBS purchase program ends. But here is an estimate much higher than mine!

Zandi also suggests there might be some Fed tightening next year due to inflation concerns and that could push up mortgage rates (I think this is unlikely), and also that the bond vigilantes might return next year because of concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and push up long rates (also unlikely in my view). Although not impossible, I don't think mortgage rates will rise to 6% next year - mostly because I think the recovery will be sluggish and choppy in 2010, and inflation will be benign (too much slack).

But the fear of higher rates is probably another reason for the surge in existing home sales, although I think the primary driver was the expected expiration of the first time home buyer tax credit.

by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2009 02:16:00 PM

Yesterday I mentioned that the Fed's favorite house price index showed prices fell in October.

However most people follow the Case-Shiller index, and the October Case-Shiller house price index will not be released until next Tuesday. Although Case-Shiller is an average of three months, I think that index will probably show a price decline too.

The following graph shows the LoanPerformance index (with and without foreclosures) and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 index in real terms (all adjusted with CPI less Shelter).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

It is interesting to look at the sharp decline in the index with foreclosures at the end of 2008 - this was what housing economist Tom Lawler described as "destickification" in the high foreclosure areas.

Notice the LoanPerformance price index without foreclosures (in red) is now at the lowest level since September 2002 in real terms (inflation adjusted).

This isn't like 2005 when prices were way out of the normal range by most measures - and it is possible that total prices have bottomed (although I think prices will fall further), but prices ex-foreclosures probably still have a ways to go - even with all the government programs aimed at supporting house prices.

by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2009 11:59:00 AM

Here is a little more positive data ...

Click on map for larger image.

Here is a map of the three month change in the Philly Fed state coincident indicators. Twenty five states are showing declining three month activity. The index increased in 20 states, and was unchanged in 5.

Here is the Philadelphia Fed state coincident index release for November.

In the past month, the indexes increased in 26 states, decreased in 16, and remained unchanged in eight (Colorado, Idaho, Indiana, Louisiana, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Oregon, and Utah) for a one-month diffusion index of 20. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 20 states, decreased in 25, and remained unchanged in five (California, Iowa, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island) for a three-month diffusion index of -10.

The second graph is of the monthly Philly Fed data of the number of states with one month increasing activity. Based on this indicator, most of the U.S. was in recession from about December 2007 through October 2009 - although the graph shows the recession ending in July 2009 (based on other data).

Note: this graph includes states with minor increases (the Philly Fed lists as unchanged).

A majority of states were showing increasing activity in November for the first time since the beginning of the recession.

by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2009 10:54:00 AM

Earlier the NAR released the existing home sales data for November; here are a couple more graphs ... and a few comments.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows NSA monthly existing home sales for 2005 through 2009 (see Red columns for 2009).

Sales (NSA) in November were much higher than in November 2007 and 2008, and were at the same level as November 2006.

Of course - as I noted earlier - many of these transactions in November were due to first-time homebuyers rushing to beat the expiration of the tax credit (that has now been extended).

Note: Existing home sales play an important role in the economy because they allow people to move for new job opportunies, or to move to larger or smaller homes for various reasons. It is the reason that people move that contributes to the economy; churning homes does nothing except generate some fees and commissions. Nothing has been added to the housing stock or the wealth of the nation.

The way to think of existing home sales is as grease for the economy. Once you have enough - probably around 4.5 to 5.0 million units per year - any extra is just a waste.

What matters for the economy are new home sales, housing starts and residential investment. And there has been little improvement in these key indicators - and there will not be any until the huge overhang of excess inventory is reduced.

This really shows up on the following graph:

This graph shows existing home sales (left axis) through November, and new home sales (right axis) through October.

The initial gap was caused by the flood of distressed sales. This kept existing home sales elevated, and depressed new home sales since builders couldn't compete with the low prices of all the foreclosed properties.

The recent spike in existing home sales was due primarily to the first time homebuyer tax credit.

A few more comments:

Months-of-supply will now increase sharply as sales plunge. Do not be fooled because months-of-supply is close to "normal" levels. This is primarily because sales were distorted by the tax credit.

Excess inventory includes existing home inventory, rental units (vacancy at record high), and various shadow inventory. This is still near record levels.

House prices are now falling again - and this will show up in the Case-Shiller index soon.

This is probably the end of the "good" housing news for a while.

by Calculated Risk on 12/22/2009 10:00:00 AM

The NAR reports: Another Big Gain in Existing-Home Sales as Buyers Respond to Tax Credit

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.54 million units in November from 6.09 million in October, and are 44.1 percent higher than the 4.54 million-unit pace in November 2008. Current sales remain at the highest level since February 2007 when they hit 6.55 million.
...
Total housing inventory at the end of November declined 1.3 percent to 3.52 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 6.5-month supply at the current sales pace, down from an 7.0-month supply in October.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1993.

Sales in Nov 2009 (6.54 million SAAR) were 7.4% higher than last month, and were 44% higher than Nov 2008 (4.54 million SAAR).

Of course many of the transactions in November were due to first-time homebuyers rushing to beat the initial expiration of the tax credit (that has now been extended). This has pushed sales far above the historical normal level; based on normal turnover, existing home sales would be in the 4.5 to 5.0 million SAAR range.

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes. According to the NAR, inventory decreased to 3.52 million in November from 3.57 million in October. The all time record was 4.57 million homes for sale in July 2008. This is not seasonally adjusted.

Typically inventory peaks in July or August, so this decline is mostly seasonal.

The third graph shows the 'months of supply' metric for the last six years.

Months of supply declined to 6.5 months in November.

A normal market has under 6 months of supply, so this is still high - and especially considering sales were artificially boosted by the tax credit. I'll have more soon ...