by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2009 07:43:00 AM

From Reuters: U.S. architecture billings index up in July: AIA

... The Architecture Billings Index rebounded more than 5 points last month to a reading of 43.1, reversing a similar decline in June, according to the American Institute of Architects.

The index has remained below 50, indicating contraction in demand for design services, since January 2008 ...

Credit remains tight and government stimulus funds have had little visible impact on project activity, AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker said.

"There has been too much contraction in recent months to get overly optimistic about business conditions," Baker said.
...
Nonresidential construction includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. The AIA's Billings Index, which began in 1995, is considered a measure of construction spending nine to 12 months in the future.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index is still below 50 indicating falling demand.

Historically there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on commercial real estate (CRE). This suggests further dramatic declines in CRE investment later this year and next.

by Calculated Risk on 8/19/2009 12:02:00 AM

From David Streitfeld at the NY Times: In Appraisal Shift, Lenders Gain Power and Critics

Mike Kennedy, a real estate appraiser in Monroe, N.Y., was examining a suburban house a few years ago when he discovered five feet of water in the basement. The mortgage broker arranging the owner’s refinancing asked him to pretend it was not there.

Brokers, real estate agents and banks asked appraisers to do a lot of pretending during the housing boom, pumping up values while ignoring defects. While Mr. Kennedy says he never complied, many appraisers did, some of them thinking they had no choice if they wanted work. A profession that should have been a brake on the spiral in home prices instead became a big contributor.

On May 1, a sweeping change took effect that was meant to reduce the conflicts of interest in home appraisals while safeguarding the independence of the people who do them.

Brokers and real estate agents can no longer order appraisals. Lenders now control the entire process.

The Home Valuation Code of Conduct is setting off a bitter battle. Mortgage brokers, lenders, real estate agents, regulators and appraisers are all arguing over whether an effort to fix one problem has created many new ones.

Streitfeld discusses the origins of the HVCC and the current situation (only the appraisal management companies and lenders are happy). Interesting story.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2009 09:32:00 PM

From Reuters: Guaranty Financial draws bid -- sources

A consortium that is led by financial services executive Gerald Ford and includes several private equity firms submitted a bid for troubled bank Guaranty Financial, despite uncertainty over U.S. regulation guidelines, sources familiar with the matter said on Tuesday.

It was unclear how many offers were submitted in total by Tuesday's deadline for bids, but sources said that there were also expected to be bids from other parties.

Today was the deadine for bids for the assets of Guaranty ($14.4 billion in assets as of Q1). My guess is the bank will be seized this week.

From Nick Timiraos at the WSJ: Corus Bids Enter the Final Stretch

New York developer the Related Cos. and Lubert-Adler Partners LP, a Philadelphia real-estate investment firm, have teamed up to bid on the assets of condo lender Corus Bank, joining a rival offer from Los Angeles private-equity fund Colony Capital LLC and iStar Financial Inc., the New York commercial-mortgage real-estate investment trust.

Several real-estate professionals see the Related-Lubert team as having the inside track to the bank's assets in a sale brokered by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp., though other private-equity firms remain in the mix ...

From other reports, it appears the bidding on the assets of Corus will be open until Sept 3rd (Corus had $7.6 billion in assets as of Q1).

These will be the 2nd and 4th largest failures of the year. Colonial had $25 billion in assets, and BankUnited had $12.8 billion in assets when they failed.

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2009 06:54:00 PM

The following article is about one of the ex-Credit Suisse brokers being found guilty of securities fraud. The judge's comments about the culture in financial services industry are on point ...

From Bloomberg: Ex-Credit Suisse Broker Eric Butler Guilty of Securities Fraud

U.S. District Judge Jack Weinstein ... asked lawyers for both Butler and the government, when they file sentencing papers, to put Butler’s acts in the context of “how pernicious and pervasive was the culture of corruption, lack of regulation” and “serious negligence in the financial services industry in supervising people like this.”

Some of these operations made J.T. Marlin look legit (OK, another movie reference).

by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2009 04:00:00 PM

Note: Google / Blogger is under a DDoS-style attack again - sorry for any inconvenience.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Instead of comparing the markets from the peak (See: the Four Bad Bears), Doug Short matched up the market bottoms for four crashes (with an interim bottom for the Great Depression).

Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.

From Edmunds.com: “Cash for Clunkers” Sales on the Rapid Decline (ht Bob_in_MA)

The rush of automotive sales activity brought on by the "Cash for Clunkers" program is fading fast, according to Edmunds.com, whose latest study of car buyer behavior indicates that automotive purchase intent is down 31 percent from its peak in late July.

“Now that there is plenty of money in the program and the most eager shoppers have already participated, the sense of urgency is gone, and the pace of intent decline is accelerating,” observed Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. "Inventories are getting lean and prices are climbing, giving consumers reasons to sit back."

Last week, activity was down 15 percent from the late July peak, and Edmunds.com analysts predict that in the coming days, purchase intent will return to levels seen before the launch of Cash for Clunkers. Purchase intent has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of sales to come in the following 90 days.

“Our research indicates that Cash for Clunkers buyers have come in three waves: the first was the informed, pent-up buyers who anxiously waited for the program to launch, while the second was the mass market who responded to advertising and other promotional coverage of the program,” recalls Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Now the industry is largely servicing the third wave, which is generally made up of people who had to chase down copies of lost titles and other paperwork and are now able to finally participate. It is unclear where the customers will come from after this wave crests and breaks.”

And from a Guaranty Bank (Texas) NT 10-Q SEC filing:

As described in the July 23 8-K, the Company does not believe it is possible to raise sufficient capital to comply with the Orders to Cease and Desist described in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 8, 2009. Accordingly, the Company no longer believes that it will be able to continue as a going concern.

The Company continues to cooperate with the Office of Thrift Supervision (the “OTS”) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) as they pursue alternatives for the business of the Bank. Any such transaction would not be expected to result in the receipt of any proceeds by the stockholders of the Company.

Bids for Guaranty's assets were due today, and it is very likely that Guaranty will be seized this week by the FDIC. Guaranty keeps repeating the warning - and still the stock is trading above zero ...