by Calculated Risk on 8/18/2009 04:00:00 PM
Tuesday, August 18, 2009
Note: Google / Blogger is under a DDoS-style attack again - sorry for any inconvenience.
Click on graph for larger image in new window.
Instead of comparing the markets from the peak (See: the Four Bad Bears), Doug Short matched up the market bottoms for four crashes (with an interim bottom for the Great Depression).
Note that the Great Depression crash is based on the DOW; the three others are for the S&P 500.
From Edmunds.com: “Cash for Clunkers” Sales on the Rapid Decline (ht Bob_in_MA)
The rush of automotive sales activity brought on by the "Cash for Clunkers" program is fading fast, according to Edmunds.com, whose latest study of car buyer behavior indicates that automotive purchase intent is down 31 percent from its peak in late July.And from a Guaranty Bank (Texas) NT 10-Q SEC filing:
“Now that there is plenty of money in the program and the most eager shoppers have already participated, the sense of urgency is gone, and the pace of intent decline is accelerating,” observed Edmunds.com CEO Jeremy Anwyl. "Inventories are getting lean and prices are climbing, giving consumers reasons to sit back."
Last week, activity was down 15 percent from the late July peak, and Edmunds.com analysts predict that in the coming days, purchase intent will return to levels seen before the launch of Cash for Clunkers. Purchase intent has proven to be a reliable leading indicator of sales to come in the following 90 days.
“Our research indicates that Cash for Clunkers buyers have come in three waves: the first was the informed, pent-up buyers who anxiously waited for the program to launch, while the second was the mass market who responded to advertising and other promotional coverage of the program,” recalls Edmunds.com Senior Analyst Jessica Caldwell. “Now the industry is largely servicing the third wave, which is generally made up of people who had to chase down copies of lost titles and other paperwork and are now able to finally participate. It is unclear where the customers will come from after this wave crests and breaks.”
As described in the July 23 8-K, the Company does not believe it is possible to raise sufficient capital to comply with the Orders to Cease and Desist described in the Company’s Current Report on Form 8-K filed on April 8, 2009. Accordingly, the Company no longer believes that it will be able to continue as a going concern.Bids for Guaranty's assets were due today, and it is very likely that Guaranty will be seized this week by the FDIC. Guaranty keeps repeating the warning - and still the stock is trading above zero ...
The Company continues to cooperate with the Office of Thrift Supervision (the “OTS”) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (“FDIC”) as they pursue alternatives for the business of the Bank. Any such transaction would not be expected to result in the receipt of any proceeds by the stockholders of the Company.