by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2009 11:00:00 AM

Note: Any reading below 100 shows contraction.

From the National Restaurant Association (NRA): Restaurant Industry Outlook Softened in May as Restaurant Performance Index Posted First Decline in Five Months

The outlook for the restaurant industry was dampened somewhat in May, as the National Restaurant Association’s comprehensive index of restaurant activity registered its first decline in five months. The Association’s Restaurant Performance Index (RPI) – a monthly composite index that tracks the health of and outlook for the U.S. restaurant industry – stood at 98.3 in May, down 0.3 percent from April and its 19th consecutive month below 100.

“With the performance of the current situation indicators holding relatively steady in May, the RPI’s decline was the result of restaurant operators’ dampened outlook for each of the four forward-looking indicators,” said Hudson Riehle, senior vice president of Research and Information Services for the Association. “Although restaurant operators remain relatively optimistic that economic conditions will improve in six months, their outlook for sales growth and capital spending activity softened somewhat.”
...
Restaurant operators also reported negative customer traffic levels in May, marking the 21st consecutive month of traffic declines.
...
Capital spending activity remained relatively steady, despite the continued soft sales and traffic levels. Forty-one percent of operators said they made a capital expenditure for equipment, expansion or remodeling during the last three months, down from 43 percent who reported similarly last month.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

Unfortunately the data for this index only goes back to 2002.

This is another example of still contracting, but contracting at a slower pace than earlier this year.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2009 09:30:00 AM

Please see: Case-Shiller: Prices Fall in April for the seasonally adjusted composite indices.

NOTE: I'm now using the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) composite 10 series.

This graph compares the Case-Shiller Composite 10 SA index with the Stress Test scenarios from the Treasury (stress test data is estimated from quarterly forecasts).

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The Stress Test scenarios use the Composite 10 index and start in December. Here are the numbers:

Case-Shiller Composite 10 Index, April: 151.27

Stress Test Baseline Scenario, April: 152.90

Stress Test More Adverse Scenario, April: 146.95

So far prices are tracking between the two stress test scenarios.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2009 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for April this morning.

This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). Note: This is not the quarterly national index.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 33.1% from the peak, and off 1.0% in April.

The Composite 20 index is off 32.0% from the peak, and off 0.9% in April.

NOTE: Some websites are reporting the NSA results (month over month). I'm using the SA data (a better month-to-month comparison)

Prices are still falling and will probably decline for some time.

The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is off 18.0% over the last year.

The Composite 20 is off 18.1% over the last year.

This is near the worst year-over-year price declines for the Composite indices since the housing bubble burst started.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Prices fell in 16 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April. In Phoenix, house prices have declined 53.7% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Charlotte and Dallas are off about 11% and 8% respectively from the peak. Prices have declined by double digits almost everywhere.

Denver, Dallas, Washington and Cleveland showed small price gains in April.

I'll compare house prices to the stress test scenarios soon.

by Calculated Risk on 6/30/2009 12:11:00 AM

From the WSJ: Ten States Race to Finish Budgets

Ten states were scrambling Monday to pass budgets before a Tuesday deadline, with a handful -- including Arizona, Indiana and Mississippi -- facing the possibility of partial shutdowns if their legislatures don't act in time.
...
Personal income-tax collections, which account for about 36% of state revenues, dropped 26% in this year's January-April period, according to data collected by the Rockefeller Institute of Government in Albany, N.Y.

Sales-tax revenues also have swooned, leaving 48 states with a combined revenue shortfall of $166 billion in the coming fiscal year, according to a report released Monday by the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities.

...States without budgets in hand include California, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Delaware, Illinois, Ohio and Connecticut ...

Here is a new Center on Budget and Policy Priorities report (released today) with state by state tables.

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2009 09:24:00 PM

There will be a flood of data released over the next three days, including the June employment numbers on Thursday. Other highlights include Case-Shiller house prices tomorrow and auto sales on Wednesday.

Several analysts expect an increase in auto sales in June, compared to May, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. From the WSJ: Car-Sales Rebound Seen for June

[A]nnualized U.S. sales could hit 10 million this month for the first time in 2009, Ford Motor Co. analyst George Pipas said on Monday. The deep discounts that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have offered to boost sales are also likely to bolster June sales.
...
A GM spokesman also said an annualized 10 million sales rate is possible for June.

J.D. Power and Associates predicts annualized June sales of 10.3 million new cars and trucks, up from 9.9 million in May, while Edmunds.com expects the sales rate to top 10 million, though overall sales will still be 25% lower than a year ago.

But before everyone gets all Green Shootie ...

This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Breaking 10 million (SAAR) in June might put sales 10% off the bottom in February, but is is still more than 25% off from June 2008 (13.7 million light vehicle SAAR) and still near the bottom of the cliff.