Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Case-Shiller: House Prices Fall in April

by Bill McBride on 6/30/2009 09:00:00 AM

S&P/Case-Shiller released their monthly Home Price Indices for April this morning.

This monthly data includes prices for 20 individual cities, and two composite indices (10 cities and 20 cities). Note: This is not the quarterly national index.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The first graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted Composite 10 and Composite 20 indices (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The Composite 10 index is off 33.1% from the peak, and off 1.0% in April.

The Composite 20 index is off 32.0% from the peak, and off 0.9% in April.

NOTE: Some websites are reporting the NSA results (month over month). I'm using the SA data (a better month-to-month comparison)

Prices are still falling and will probably decline for some time.

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices The second graph shows the Year over year change in both indices.

The Composite 10 is off 18.0% over the last year.

The Composite 20 is off 18.1% over the last year.

This is near the worst year-over-year price declines for the Composite indices since the housing bubble burst started.

The third graph shows the price declines from the peak for each city included in S&P/Case-Shiller indices.

Case-Shiller Price Declines Prices fell in 16 of the 20 Case-Shiller cities in April. In Phoenix, house prices have declined 53.7% from the peak. At the other end of the spectrum, prices in Charlotte and Dallas are off about 11% and 8% respectively from the peak. Prices have declined by double digits almost everywhere.

Denver, Dallas, Washington and Cleveland showed small price gains in April.

I'll compare house prices to the stress test scenarios soon.