NEW! CalculatedRisk Newsletter on Real Estate (Ad Free) Read it here.

Monday, June 29, 2009

Auto Sales Expected to be near 10 Million SAAR in June

by Calculated Risk on 6/29/2009 09:24:00 PM

There will be a flood of data released over the next three days, including the June employment numbers on Thursday. Other highlights include Case-Shiller house prices tomorrow and auto sales on Wednesday.

Several analysts expect an increase in auto sales in June, compared to May, on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. From the WSJ: Car-Sales Rebound Seen for June

[A]nnualized U.S. sales could hit 10 million this month for the first time in 2009, Ford Motor Co. analyst George Pipas said on Monday. The deep discounts that General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have offered to boost sales are also likely to bolster June sales.
...
A GM spokesman also said an annualized 10 million sales rate is possible for June.

J.D. Power and Associates predicts annualized June sales of 10.3 million new cars and trucks, up from 9.9 million in May, while Edmunds.com expects the sales rate to top 10 million, though overall sales will still be 25% lower than a year ago.
But before everyone gets all Green Shootie ...

Vehicle Sales This graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.

Breaking 10 million (SAAR) in June might put sales 10% off the bottom in February, but is is still more than 25% off from June 2008 (13.7 million light vehicle SAAR) and still near the bottom of the cliff.