by Calculated Risk on 3/25/2009 01:03:00 AM

By popular request, an open thread and a few sources for futures and the foreign markets.

The U.S. futures are about neutral right now ahead of the durable goods and new home sales reports Wednesday morning.

Bloomberg Futures.

CBOT mini-sized Dow

CME Globex Flash Quotes

Futures from barchart.com

And the Asian markets. The Asian market are about even too.

And a graph of the Asian markets.

And here is Krugman on Bloomberg: 'Geithner plan won't work' (ht bearly)

Best to all.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2009 09:07:00 PM

Earlier today I graphed the mortgage equity extraction data for Q4 2008 from Dr. James Kennedy at the Fed.

Thanks again to Dr. Kennedy for all the data!

For those interested, here is the equity extraction data from the Fed (excel file) Enjoy!

IMPORTANT NOTE: If you use this data, please read this note from the Fed:

Attached are the estimates of home equity extraction and related data through the fourth quarter of 2008, courtesy of Jim Kennedy. Please note that there will be no further updates to this data series.

These data are the product of a research project undertaken by Jim and Alan Greenspan. The data are not an official publication or product of the Federal Reserve Board. If you cite these data, please reference one of the two papers that Jim wrote with Alan Greenspan. For example, a reference might read something like this:

"Updated estimates provided by Jim Kennedy of the mortgage system presented in "Estimates of Home Mortgage Originations, Repayments, and Debt On One-to-Four-Family Residences," Alan Greenspan and James Kennedy, Federal Reserve Board FEDS working paper no. 2005-41."

Since the fall of 2005, when the first paper Jim wrote with Alan Greenspan was released, Jim has updated the data periodically, usually quarterly, a few days after publication of the Flow of Funds data.

Here is a repeat of the total MEW graph:

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

For Q4 2008, Dr. Kennedy has calculated Net Equity Extraction as minus $77 billion, or negative 2.9% of Disposable Personal Income (DPI).

This graph shows the net equity extraction, or mortgage equity withdrawal (MEW), results, both in billions of dollars quarterly (not annual rate), and as a percent of personal disposable income.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2009 07:50:00 PM

UPDATE: Form the WSJ: Obama Says 'Signs of Progress' Emerging in Economy

Here is the CNBC feed.

Here is the FOX feed.

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2009 04:55:00 PM

On inflation (from Dow Jones):

“One historic way of getting yourself out of this situation — or trying to — is to inflate. Either you do it deliberately or you allow it to happen,” [Vlocker] said. “And if we permit that to happen then I think all these dollars will come tumbling down on us.” ...

“I get a little nervous when I see the Federal Reserve announcements that they want have the amount of inflation that’s conducive to recovery,” Volcker said. “I don’t know what ‘the amount of inflation that’s conducive to recovery’ would be appropriate. I’d much rather they say that they want to maintain stability in the currency, which is conducive to confidence and recovery.”

And on China:

“I think the Chinese are a little disingenuous to say, ‘Now isn’t it so bad that we hold all these dollars.’ They hold all these dollars because they chose to buy the dollars, and they didn’t want to sell the dollars because they didn’t want to depreciate their currency. It was a very simple calculation on their part, so they shouldn’t come around blaming it all on us.”

by Calculated Risk on 3/24/2009 03:00:00 PM

From the New York Fed: New York Fed Issues Tentative Operation Schedule, FAQs for Treasury Purchases, Updated FAQs for Agency Debt and Agency MBS Purchases

The first outright Treasury coupon purchase will be conducted on Wednesday, March 25, 2009, and will settle Thursday, March 26, 2009. Results will be posted on the New York Fed’s website following the operation.

Starting on Wednesday, April 1, 2009, and continuing every two weeks, the New York Fed will issue a tentative operation schedule for its purchases of longer-dated Treasury securities, including the maturity sector or sectors to be targeted.

According to the current schedule, the Fed will be buying 7 to 10 year securities tomorrow. On Friday they will be buying 2 to 3 year securities. And on Monday they will buying in the 17 to 30 year range.