by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2005 12:10:00 PM

Just some stories ...

MBA: Mortgage Application Volume Down in Latest Survey

"The seasonally-adjusted Purchase Index decreased by 7.4 percent ... from ... the previous week whereas the Refinance Index decreased by 8.5 percent..."

Denver: October housing market still soft

Sellers are having to make more concessions, having to adjust their prices downward," said Steve McGuire with Re/Max Professionals in Highlands Ranch. "Maybe we are seeing a little bit of a trend."

Florida: More houses in region hitting the market, tempering prices

A report by the Sarasota Association of Realtors due out this week shows listings in Sarasota County more than doubled in September to 1,331 compared with the same month last year.

In Manatee, listings for August jumped a whopping 157 percent compared with the same month last year.

The increase is mostly because of the longer time listings are remaining on the market.

More Mass. articles: Mass. home prices fall in September and Mass. housing market showing signs of fatigue

And on the possible Canary in the Coal mine (The UK, thanks to Joshua):

More homeowners in debt trouble

Mortgage repossession orders during the past three months in England and Wales were up 66% on a year ago to nearly 20,000, official figures have shown.
Repossession orders have been on the increase since early 2004.
...
The Department for Constitutional Affairs figures will add to concerns about debt and the housing market.

"The increase in mortgage possessions fits with the slowdown in house price inflation," Alan Clarke, UK economist at BNP Paribas, said.

"The conclusion is there are still signs of financial stress among homeowners," he added.

Job losses will accelerate, predicts CBI

A gloomy picture of British manufacturing industry emerged from the latest CBI survey which predicts the loss of thousands more manufacturing jobs. ... The October survey of business by the Confederation of British Industry tells a sorry tale of declining order books and falling optimism brought on mainly by the tough conditions on the shopping high streets.
...
The CBI said: "Rising raw material and energy prices have continued to push up costs and hit profits. Against this background, firms are cutting back on their investment plans and expect the rate of job losses to increase."

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2005 05:23:00 AM

The Boston Herald reports: Housing prices weaken

...median house and condo sale prices also fell – something not directly affected by seasonal issues.

Additionally, the number of unsold houses and condos on the market rose to 56,016 last month – apparently the highest inventory ever recorded.

John Bitner, chief economist at Eastern Bank, said the latest data "very well may confirm that (the market has) passed the peak."

He said that as housing booms die, prices rise year over year for a time, but fall month over month – exactly what yesterday's report showed.

In Boston, CPI less Shelter has increased 8.7% over the last 12 months. Therefore, in real terms and using the 4% YoY nominal increase reported in the story, house prices have fallen in Massachusetts by almost 5%.

I believe Bitner is correct, the market has passed the peak.

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2005 10:40:00 AM

UPDATE: Add Graph of Year over Year inventory increase.

Click on graph for larger image.

Inventories were up slightly from August to 2.849 million units. This represents an increase of 19.6% over last September. Usually inventories decline in September after the summer selling season. For comparison, August was up 12.2% Year over year, so seasonally this indicates a significant increase in inventories.

Reuters reports: Sept existing home sales flat

Sales of existing U.S. homes were unchanged in September at a 7.28 million unit pace, as strong post-Katrina sales in the U.S. South helped offset weaker activity elsewhere, a trade group said on Tuesday.

Sales of the previously owned homes were flat compared with August's downwardly revised 7.28 million unit pace, the National Association of Realtors said. That figure includes both single-family homes and condominiums.

Analysts had expected overall sales to decline to a 7.20 million unit pace from the originally reported 7.29 million unit pace in August.

Sales would have been lower in September without the strong purchase activity reported for areas around the hurricane-hit zone, the Realtors' chief economist said. For example, while sales dropped 85 percent in New Orleans, Baton Rouge reported a 150 percent increase, the group said.

Median prices declined to $212K, the lowest since May, probably because of the strong activity in the South. Average prices also decreased to $260K, the lowest since May.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2005 09:01:00 PM

Here is my forecast for September petroleum import and exports using the same model (described here).

The ERPP (Energy Related Petroleum Products) trade numbers for September are forecast to be:

Forecast: Total NSA ERPP Imports: $23.0 Billion

Total SA ERPP FORECAST:
Imports SA: $23.1 Billion (seasonal factor estimated at 1.003 for Sept)
Exports SA: $2.0 Billion
SA Balance ERPP: $21.1 Billion

This compares to the record $20.6 Billion SA petroleum trade deficit for August.

I am forecasting a record average price per barrel of $56.47 compared to the August record of $52.65.

Imports SA and NSA will be close to the records set in August. Although unit prices were substantially higher in September, imported quantities were lower. A new record depends on the quantity of refined products imported in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2005 06:59:00 PM

The National Debt is now $8,009,131,433,464.30.