by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2005 09:01:00 PM

Here is my forecast for September petroleum import and exports using the same model (described here).

The ERPP (Energy Related Petroleum Products) trade numbers for September are forecast to be:

Forecast: Total NSA ERPP Imports: $23.0 Billion

Total SA ERPP FORECAST:
Imports SA: $23.1 Billion (seasonal factor estimated at 1.003 for Sept)
Exports SA: $2.0 Billion
SA Balance ERPP: $21.1 Billion

This compares to the record $20.6 Billion SA petroleum trade deficit for August.

I am forecasting a record average price per barrel of $56.47 compared to the August record of $52.65.

Imports SA and NSA will be close to the records set in August. Although unit prices were substantially higher in September, imported quantities were lower. A new record depends on the quantity of refined products imported in September.