by Calculated Risk on 10/27/2025 08:11:00 AM

Altos reports that active single-family inventory was up 1.0% week-over-week.  Inventory usually starts to decline in the fall and then declines sharply during the holiday season.

The first graph shows the seasonal pattern for active single-family inventory since 2015.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025.  The black line is for 2019.  

Inventory was up 17.9% compared to the same week in 2024 (last week it was up 16.2%), and down 6.5% compared to the same week in 2019 (last week it was down 8.1%). 

Inventory started 2025 down 22% compared to 2019.  Inventory has closed more most of that gap, but it appears inventory will still be below 2019 levels at the end of 2025.

This second inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research.

As of October 24th, inventory was at 868 thousand (7-day average), compared to 859 thousand the prior week.   This is a new high for 2025!

Mike Simonsen discusses this data and much more regularly on YouTube

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2025 06:11:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of October 26, 2025

• FOMC Preview: 25bps Rate Cut Expected

Monday:
• (will not be released due to government shutdown) At 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

• (will not be released) At 10:00 AM, New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

• At 10:30 AM, Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 are up 48 and DOW futures are up 320 (fair value).

Oil prices were mixed over the last week with WTI futures at $61.50 per barrel and Brent at $65.94 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $68, and Brent was at $72 - so WTI oil prices are down about 10% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $3.01 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.09 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.08 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/26/2025 08:21:00 AM

Most analysts expect the FOMC to reduce the Fed Funds rate by 25bps at the meeting this week to a target range of 3-3/4 to 4 percent.    Market participants currently expect the FOMC to also cut rates an additional 25bps at the December meeting.

From BofA:

The Fed has indicated that it will cut rates by 25bp to 3.75-4.0% at its October meeting. We also expect the FOMC to announce an end to balance sheet runoff. We think the Fed will acknowledge the recent strength of economic activity. But the broader shift in focus toward the labor mandate probably won’t change. Powell is also unlikely to offer much guidance beyond this meeting given the lack of official sector data and the current labor-consumption conundrum.
...
Our base case is that there will again be only one dissent, a dovish one from Governor Miran, who indicated that he would favor a 50bp cut in a recent interview. But we see meaningful risks of at least one hawkish dissent as well.
emphasis added

Projections will NOT be released at this meeting. Here are the September projections.  

The BEA's estimate for first half 2025 GDP showed real growth at 1.6% annualized. Most estimates for Q3 GDP are around 2.8%.  That would put the real growth for the first three quarters at 1.9% annualized - above the top end of the September projections.

GDP projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Change in Real GDP1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	1.4 to 1.7	1.7 to 2.1	1.8 to 2.0
Jun 2025	1.2 to 1.5	1.5 to 1.8	1.7 to 2.0

¹ Projections of change in real GDP and inflation are from the fourth quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

The unemployment rate was at 4.3% in August.  The unemployment rate will likely increase further this year.  There was no data for September due to the government shutdown.

Unemployment projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Unemployment Rate2
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.4 to 4.5	4.2 to 4.4
Jun 2025	4.4 to 4.5	4.3 to 4.6	4.2 to 4.6

² Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

As of August 2025, PCE inflation increased 2.y% year-over-year (YoY), up from 2.6% YoY in July. 

Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, PCE Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	2.9 to 3.0	2.4-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.8 to 3.2	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

PCE core inflation increased 2.9% YoY in August, unchanged from 2.9% YoY in July.  There will likely be further increases in core PCE inflation, although CPI measured inflation was below expectations in September.

Core Inflation projections of Federal Reserve Governors and Reserve Bank presidents, Core Inflation1
Projection Date	2025	2026	2027
Sept 2025	3.0 to 3.2	2.5-2.7	2.0 to 2.2
Jun 2025	2.9 to 3.4	2.3-2.6	2.0 to 2.2

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2025 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September

• NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3

• Lawler: Early Read on September Existing Home Sales, and Update on MBS Yields and Spreads

• 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

• California Home Sales Up 6.6% Year-over-year SAAR in September

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 10/25/2025 08:11:00 AM

Boo!

The FOMC meets this week and is expected to cut rates 25bp.

The key economic reports that will be released this week include the Case-Shiller house price index for August, and October ISM manufacturing and services indexes.

Items in Red will not be released due to the government shutdown.

----- Monday, October 27th -----
8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for September from the Census Bureau.

​10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

10:30 AM: Dallas Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.

----- Tuesday, October 28th -----
9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for August.  The consensus is for the National index to be up 1.9% year-over-year.

This graph shows the year-over-year change in the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for August. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM: The Q3 Housing Vacancies and Homeownership report from the Census Bureau.

10:00 AM: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.  This is the last regional Fed survey for October.

----- Wednesday, October 29th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for September. 

2:00 PM: FOMC Meeting Announcement. The Fed is expected to cut rates 25bp at this meeting.

2:30 PM: Fed Chair Jerome Powell holds a press briefing following the FOMC announcement.

----- Thursday, October 30th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 3rd quarter 2025 (advance estimate).

----- Friday, October 31st -----
8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays for September.

9:45 AM: Chicago Purchasing Managers Index for October. The consensus is for a reading of 42.0, up from 40.6 in September.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2025 04:00:00 PM

From Intercontinental Exchange: ICE First Look at Mortgage Performance: Mortgage Performance Remains Strong as FHA Foreclosures Emerge

Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (NYSE:ICE) ... today released the September 2025 ICE First Look at mortgage delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends.

The data shows that overall mortgage performance remains historically strong, with both delinquencies and foreclosure activity remaining below long-term averages. While some shifts are emerging among government-backed loan segments, these trends largely represent a normalization of market dynamics rather than broad-based weakness.

“The mortgage market remains remarkably resilient, with mortgage performance continuing to hold up well,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “Delinquency rates improved in September, and even as we see increases in activity among FHA loans, we’re largely returning to more typical levels following several years of artificially low foreclosure volumes.”

Key takeaways from this month’s findings include:

• Delinquencies remain well below pre-pandemic norms: The national delinquency rate fell by 2 basis points (bps) in September to 3.42%, down 6 bps from the same time last year and 58 bps below its September 2019 pre-pandemic level.

• Strength across delinquency bands in September: Both early-stage (30-day) and late-stage (90+ day) delinquencies improved month-over-month, as the vast majority of borrowers remain current on their mortgage payments.

• Non-current rates improved for most investors: The non-current rate (delinquencies plus active foreclosures) declined year-over-year among GSE (-3 bps), VA (-4 bps) and portfolio-held loans (-17 bps). FHA loans were the notable exception, rising by 44 bps from last year’s levels.

• Foreclosure activity is returning to normal ranges: There were 103,000 foreclosure starts in Q3 2025, a 23% increase from the same period last year, but 18% below Q3 2019’s pre-pandemic levels.

• Improving efficiency in resolution: The number of loans in active foreclosure rose modestly year-over-year (18%), yet overall foreclosure volume remains historically low, with Q3 foreclosure sales (21,000) at roughly half of 2019 levels. FHA loans account for the majority of that rise, making up 38% of active foreclosures, roughly half of the annual rise in foreclosure starts and 80% of the rise in active foreclosures. The resumption of VA foreclosure activity following last year’s moratorium is largely responsible for the remainder.

• Prepayments are edging higher: Prepayments rose by 8 bps in September to a 0.74% single month mortality (SMM) rate, a 15% increase from the prior year, as interest rates began to ease in August.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

Here is a table from ICE.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2025 01:03:00 PM

The Cleveland Fed released the median CPI and the trimmed-mean CPI.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, the median Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% in August. The 16% trimmed-mean Consumer Price Index increased 0.2%. "The median CPI and 16% trimmed-mean CPI are measures of core inflation calculated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland based on data released in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) monthly CPI report".

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the year-over-year change for these four key measures of inflation. 

On a year-over-year basis, the median CPI rose 3.5% (down from 3.6% YoY in August), the trimmed-mean CPI rose 3.2% (down from 3.3%), and the CPI less food and energy rose 3.0% (down from 3.1%). 

Core PCE is for August was up 2.9% YoY, unchanged from 2.9% in July.  

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2025 10:36:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NMHC on Apartments: Market conditions "Soften" in Q3

Excerpt:

From the NMHC: Borrowing Conditions Continue to Improve While Most Respondents Report an Unchanged Market

Market Tightness Index (31) came in well below the breakeven level of 50 this round, indicating lower rent growth and higher vacancies compared to July, while the Sales Volume Index (59), Equity Financing Index (57), and Debt Financing Index (78) signaled improved market conditions.

“A softening labor market combined with high levels of new apartment supply is resulting in slowing rent growth in many parts of the country,” noted NMHC’s Chief Economist, Chris Bruen. “This continues to be most pronounced in sunbelt markets, many of which are currently seeing falling rents.”

“We’ve seen a modest decline in long-term interest rates over the past three months—the 10-Year Treasury Yield is currently down 28 basis points (bps) from July—resulting in improved conditions for debt financing and an uptick in apartment deal flow.”
...
• The Market Tightness Index came in at 31 this quarter, indicating looser market conditions. Only 9% of respondents thought market conditions were tighter compared to three months ago, 47% of respondents thought conditions had become looser, while 43% reported unchanged market conditions relative to July.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2025 09:00:00 AM

With the release of the CPI report this morning, we now know the Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA), and the contribution base for 2026.

From Social Security: Social Security Announces 2.8 Percent Benefit Increase for 2026

The Social Security Administration (SSA) announced today that Social Security benefits, including Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI), and Supplemental Security Income (SSI) payments for 75 million Americans will increase 2.8 percent in 2026. On average, Social Security retirement benefits will increase by about $56 per month starting in January.
...
Other adjustments that take effect in January of each year are based on the increase in average wages. Based on that increase, the maximum amount of earnings subject to the Social Security tax (taxable maximum) is slated to increase to $184,500 from $176,100.

Currently CPI-W is the index that is used to calculate the Cost-Of-Living Adjustments (COLA). Here is a discussion from Social Security on the current calculation (2.8% increase) and a list of previous Cost-of-Living Adjustments.

The contribution and benefit base will be $184,500 in 2026.

The National Average Wage Index increased to $69,846.57 in 2024, up 4.84% from $66,621.80 in 2023 (used to calculate contribution base). 

by Calculated Risk on 10/24/2025 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in September, after rising 0.4 percent in August, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 3.0 percent before seasonal adjustment. Note that September CPI data collection was completed before the lapse in appropriations.

The index for gasoline rose 4.1 percent in September and was the largest factor in the all items monthly increase, as the index for energy rose 1.5 percent over the month. The food index increased 0.2 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 0.3 percent and the food away from home index increased 0.1 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in September, after rising 0.3 percent in each of the 2 preceding months. Indexes that increased over the month include shelter, airline fares, recreation, household furnishings and operations, and apparel. The indexes for motor vehicle insurance, used cars and trucks, and communication were among the few major indexes that decreased in September.

The all items index rose 3.0 percent for the 12 months ending September, after rising 2.9 percent over the 12 months ending August. The all items less food and energy index also rose 3.0 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 2.8 percent for the 12 months ending September. The food index increased 3.1 percent over the last year.
emphasis added

The change in CPI was slightly below expectations. I'll post a graph later today after the Cleveland Fed releases the median and trimmed-mean CPI.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2025 08:17:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Friday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The Consumer Price Index for September from the BLS. 

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 3.1% year-over-year (up from 2.9% in August) and core CPI to be up 3.1% YoY (unchanged from 3.1% in August).

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2025 02:49:00 PM

Hotel occupancy was weak over the summer months, due to less international tourism.  The fall months are mostly domestic travel and occupancy is still under pressure!

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 18 October

The U.S. hotel industry reported mixed year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 18 October. ...

12-18 October 2025 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024):

• Occupancy: 68.5% (-2.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$173.14 (+1.7%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$118.65 (-0.7%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2025, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2024.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

The 4-week average of the occupancy rate is tracking behind both last year and the median rate for the period 2000 through 2024 (Blue).

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will decrease seasonally until early next year.

On a year-to-date basis, the only worse years for occupancy over the last 25 years were pandemic or recession years.

Here are some Hotel executive comments from a recent conference: 'Uncertainty is bad for business': Hotel executives express discontent with unpredictability

"What's tough on our industry always is uncertainty," said Joe Berger, president and CEO of BRE Hotels & Resorts. "It's been a tough year to navigate."

Leeny Oberg, chief financial officer and executive vice president of development at Marriott International, said there's frequently a new tariff announcement or comment made toward another country that is affecting the planning process. That process is very sequential, so the timing of some of these announcements can really throw off the execution of hotel projects midway through, she said.

"You've got all these people trying to make plans about their cutbacks and what they're trying to do with their properties, and it's literally every week or every day there's a new announcement. 'Oh, it's furniture today,' or, 'Oh, it's this country today.' From a planning perspective, it makes it extremely difficult," she said.

One of the larger subplots of the year has been the decline in Canadian travel to the U.S., due in large part to comments made from President Donald Trump on America's neighboring country. In August, Tourism Economics projected a 20.2% decline in Canadian travel to the U.S. on the year.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2025 11:04:00 AM

Today, in the CalculatedRisk Real Estate Newsletter: NAR: Existing-Home Sales Increased to 4.06 million SAAR in September

Excerpt:

The fourth graph shows existing home sales by month for 2024 and 2025.

Sales were up 4.1% year-over-year compared to September 2024. This was the easiest year-over-year comparison.
...
On an NSA basis for the month of September, this was 11% above the low for housing bust for the month of September that happened in September 2010. Year-to-date, sales are down 0.2% NSA.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/23/2025 10:00:00 AM

From the NAR: NAR Existing-Home Sales Report Shows 1.5% Increase in September

Month-over-month

• 1.5% increase in existing-home sales – seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.06 million in September

• 1.3% increase in unsold inventory – 1.55 million units equal to 4.6 months' supply

Year-over-year

• 4.1% increase in existing-home sales

• 2.1% increase in median existing-home sales price to $415,200
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows existing home sales, on a Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) basis since 1994.

Sales in September (4.06 million SAAR) were up 1.5% from the previous month and were up 4.1% compared to the September 2024 sales rate.  

The second graph shows nationwide inventory for existing homes.

According to the NAR, inventory increased to 1.55 million in September from 1.53 million the previous month.

Headline inventory is not seasonally adjusted, and inventory usually decreases to the seasonal lows in December and January, and peaks in mid-to-late summer.

The last graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in reported existing home inventory and months-of-supply. Since inventory is not seasonally adjusted, it really helps to look at the YoY change. Note: Months-of-supply is based on the seasonally adjusted sales and not seasonally adjusted inventory.

Inventory was up 14.0% year-over-year (blue) in September compared to September 2024.

Months of supply (red) was unchanged at 4.6 months in September from 4.6 months the previous month.

I'll have more later. 

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2025 07:49:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Thursday:
• At 8:30 AM ET, The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. (WILL NOT BE RELEASED)

• At 8:30 AM, Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September. This is a composite index of other data.

• At 10:00 AM, Existing Home Sales for September from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR. 

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.00 million SAAR for September.

• At 11:00 AM, Kansas City Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for October.<

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2025 03:46:00 PM

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment including multi-family residential.

From the AIA: ABI September 2025: Weakness persists at architecture firms

The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 43.3 for the month is the softest reading since April and represents an increase in the share of firms reporting a decrease from August. In addition, inquiries into new projects remained flat for the second consecutive month, following growth over the summer, and the value of newly signed design contracts decreased for the 19th consecutive month. All of these indicators mean that the soft conditions that many architecture firms have been experiencing since late 2022 are likely to persist for the foreseeable future.

Recent revisions to work in the pipeline continue to erode as well. In the aftermath of the pandemic-induced downturn in 2020, architecture firm backlogs reached the highest levels we have seen since we started collecting that data regularly 15 years ago. Backlogs have gradually declined since the third quarter of 2022 and currently stand at an average of 6.1 months, down from 6.5 months at the beginning of the year. Backlogs are averaging just five months at firms with multifamily residential and commercial/industrial specializations, but stand at an average of eight months at firms with an institutional specialization. But despite the recent decrease in backlogs at firms, they still stand at levels nearly comparable to those before the pandemic.

Billings declined at firms in all regions of the country in September, except for firms located in the Midwest, where billings were essentially flat. Billings were softest at firms located in the West for the fourth consecutive month, where they have weakened the most over the last year. By firm specialization, business conditions were weakest at firms with an institutional specialization this month and continued to soften at firms with a commercial/industrial specialization, which reported conditions approaching growth over the summer.
...
The ABI serves as a leading economic indicator that leads nonresidential construction activity by approximately 9-12 months.
emphasis added

• Northeast (43.8); Midwest (49.8); South (47.9); West (40.6)

• Sector index breakdown: commercial/industrial (46.6); institutional (44.3); multifamily residential (47.2)

Click on graph for larger image.

This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 43.3 in September, down from 47.2 in August.  Anything below 50 indicates a decrease in demand for architects' services.

This index has indicated contraction for 34 of the last 36 months.

Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions.

This index usually leads CRE investment by 9 to 12 months, so this index suggests a slowdown in CRE investment throughout 2025 and into 2026.

Multi-family billings have been below 50 for 38 consecutive months.  This suggests we will some further weakness in multi-family starts.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2025 02:27:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A brief excerpt:

The NAR is scheduled to release September Existing Home sales on Thursday, October 23rd at 10:00 AM. The consensus is for the NAR to report sales of 4.06 million SAAR. Last year, the NAR reported sales in September 2024 at 3.90 million SAAR.

Housing economist Tom Lawler expects the NAR to report sales of 4.00 million SAAR for September.

September sales will be mostly for contracts signed in July and August, and mortgage rates averaged 6.72% in July and 6.59% in August (lower than for closed sales in July).

In September, sales in these markets were up 8.2% YoY. Last month, in August, these same markets were down 2.5% year-over-year Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA).

Important: There were one more working days in September 2025 (21) as in September 2024 (20). So, the year-over-year change in the headline SA data will be lower than the NSA data suggests (there are other seasonal factors).
...
More local markets to come after the NAR release.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 10/22/2025 07:00:00 AM

From the MBA: Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Mortgage applications decreased 0.3 percent from one week earlier, according to data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey for the week ending October 17, 2025.

The Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, decreased 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the Index decreased 0.2 percent compared with the previous week. The Refinance Index increased 4 percent from the previous week and was 81 percent higher than the same week one year ago. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent from one week earlier. The unadjusted Purchase Index decreased 5 percent compared with the previous week and was 20 percent higher than the same week one year ago.

“The lowest mortgage rates in a month spurred an increase in refinance activity, including another pickup in ARM applications. The 30-year fixed rate decreased to 6.37 percent and all other loan types also decreased,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “The refinance index increased 4 percent, driven by a 6 percent increase in conventional refinances and a 12 percent increase in FHA refinance applications, as borrowers remain attentive to these opportunities to lower their monthly mortgage payment. VA refinances bucked the trend and were down 12 percent.”

Added Kan, “ARM applications increased 16 percent over the week, which pushed the ARM share to 11 percent, with the ARM rate more than 80 basis points lower than the 30-year fixed rate. Purchase applications were down over the week but remained 20 percent higher than a year ago.”
...
The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($806,500 or less) decreased to 6.37 percent from 6.42 percent, with points decreasing to 0.59 from 0.61 (including the origination fee) for 80 percent loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows the MBA mortgage purchase index.

According to the MBA, purchase activity is up 20% year-over-year unadjusted. 

Red is a four-week average (blue is weekly).  

Purchase application activity is still depressed, but above the lows of 2023 and slightly above the lowest levels during the housing bust.  

The second graph shows the refinance index since 1990.

The refinance index has increased from the bottom as mortgage rates declined.

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2025 07:58:00 PM

Note: Mortgage rates are from MortgageNewsDaily.com and are for top tier scenarios.

Wednesday:
• 7:00 AM ET, The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

• During the day, The AIA/Deltek's Architecture Billings Index for September (a leading indicator for commercial real estate).

by Calculated Risk on 10/21/2025 03:46:00 PM

Here are a few photos from my trip to Patagonia:

Click on graph for larger image.

The first photo is at Cape Horn with a friend since high school. 

We were lucky to able to go ashore!

The albatross is a memorial to all the sailors that lost their lives sailing around the Cape.

Here is a poem on a plaque near the monument.

"I am the albatross that awaits you at the end of the world.
I am the forgotten souls of dead mariners who crossed Cape Horn from every sea on Earth.
But they did not die in the raging waves; today they fly on my wings toward eternity, in the last crevice of the Antarctic winds."
by Sara Vial

The second photo is at Torres del Paine National Park.

This shows the granite towers and horns.

The "horns" are sedimentary rock (black) on top of granite (gray).

The park is known for ferocious wind gusts - and it did not disappoint!

The third photo is also at Torres del Paine National Park.

This is at Gray Glacier Lake.

This lake is known for the bright blue icebergs - and there was a large one close to shore when we arrived.

"Paine" means blue in the indigenous language, so the park is named after the towers and the amazing blue lakes.

The wind was gusting up to 85 knots when I took this photo. You had to lean into the winds at times.

A great trip!